It all comes down to one day in Lahore, as Australia rolls the dice on victory

Melinda Farrell

It all comes down to one day in Lahore, as Australia rolls the dice on victory image

And so it comes to this: ten wickets, 278 runs, win, loss, draw, tie.

Before this tour started, and at every stage throughout, the Australians have referred to a 15-day Test series, a campaign in which it was vital to see the forest and the trees simultaneously.

The selection of players, pace of play, bowling rotation, declarations and decisions surrounding the follow on; the end goal has hovered over them all.

14 days have passed and only one remains and, while there is meaning to everything that has transpired so far, in the context of winning the Benaud-Qadir Trophy it is all essentially meaningless. Only the 15th day matters now.

In his press conference before the start of this Test, Pat Cummins was asked if he would be prepared to gamble a loss in order to win and his response foreshadowed his declaration after tea that set Pakistan a target of 351 for victory.

“That's kind of hard to judge without knowing the scenario,” said Cummins before the match. “But yeah, we never think of playing super, super safely. 

“There's a win on the line. I think in reality, a lot of the time over here, the wickets probably don't provide the same rate of pace and play or maybe the same opportunities around in other places of the world. 

“So it's kind of hard to compare apples and oranges when it comes to some tactics going for the win. 

“But yeah, absolutely.”

No one can accuse Cummins of not walking the walk in eschewing the super, super safe option.

The declaration was sporting enough, and appeared even more so by stumps on day 4 when Abdullah Shafique and Imam-ul-Haq had seen off the new ball.

But Pakistan have possibly had the best of batting conditions and scoring will likely become much more difficult when the ball softens, as has been the case all series.

And this is what we do; search for clues and portents from the other 14 days as if the past can predict the future.

We can look to conventional wisdom that says spin will be pivotal on day five, or pause when we consider Mitchell Swepson’s struggles in the series so far, or dwell on the nagging doubts that linger over Nathan Lyon’s ability to bowl Australia to victory when it’s really on the line.

We can wonder if a reverse swing party will kick off; another thundering spell from Cummins and Mitch Starc, the likes of which set Gaddafi Stadium alight in Pakistan’s first innings. 

Timing may come into play as the overs tick by and the likelihood of an older ball reversing at the end of the day seems possible; but then, the spectre of Karachi and the fruitless search for reverse says hi, remember me?

We can place our bets on how many chances Australia will create and how many will be taken or squandered, not forgetting that Pakistan would have been a wicket down if Steve Smith hadn’t blown his third opportunity in this Test to claim a catch.

That those missed chances have all come from spin may be significant as the final day wears on; Smith has been wrong-footed with his weight thrown right when the ball has flown to his left to both offspin and legspin, the batters driving, cutting and defending. 

Will it play on his mind and cause a fatal flutter of indecision and doubt or will they finally stick?

Can Babar Azam conjure the obstinance and durability that he found in Karachi, should Pakistan concede that a draw is their best option?

Such a repeat performance shouldn’t seriously be entertained but it would be brave to dismiss the possibility, despite the length of Pakistan’s tail.

And don't forget the World Test Championship; a result in this series may have far-reaching effects that would not have been a consideration not so long ago.

Peer into your crystal balls, flip those coins, roll the dice. 

Reflect on Usman Khawaja’s centuries or Naseem Shah’s precociousness, ruminate on the fact spin has not been king in this series, and celebrate the friendly spirit in which this series has been played.

None of that matters on day 15 of this 15-day series.

And the pitch, that infernal strip of turf, one of three that has been so heavily scrutinised, what on earth will it do this time?

There is rough, proper rough, but we have been teased with talk of cracks and footmarks in the past 14 days that has amounted to not very much; if there is a result, any result, at the end of all this it may mitigate scrutiny and soften the talk of flat pitches.

22 yards and 22 men will answer these questions in Lahore and decide the series on the only day that matters.

Ten wickets, 278 runs.

Win, loss, draw, tie.

Melinda Farrell

Melinda Farrell Photo

Melinda Farrell is a senior cricket writer for The Sporting News Australia.