Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will put his undisputed super middleweight championship on the line against undisputed super welterweight champion Jermell Charlo on October 1 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Charlo has made the bold decision to jump up two weight classes to challenge Canelo and potentially join Terence Crawford and Claressa Shields as the only fighters in the four-belt era to be undisputed champions in two different weight classes.
But Charlo’s path to get there will have to go through the current face of boxing and one of the greatest Mexican fighters of all time, Canelo Alvarez.
Alvarez (59-2-2, 39 KOs) is coming off of a unanimous decision victory over John Ryder in May. Prior to that, he put an end to his rivalry with Gennadiy Golovkin with a unanimous decision win over his longtime rival. This all came after Canelo fell short in his attempt to win the WBA (Super) light heavyweight title when he was outpointed by Dmitry Bivol last May. There are some who believe that the 33-year-old may be on the downside of his career but Canelo is out to prove that isn’t the case.
Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs) was last seen in the ring in May 2022 when he stopped Brian Castano to become the undisputed super welterweight champion. The stoppage came nearly a year after the two battled to a draw. Charlo has had battles with consistency as he’s only fought three times since January 2020 with a knockout of Jeison Rosario along with the draw and victory over Castano.
Although he’s moving up in weight, he will have a three-inch height and two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage over Canelo.
It’s a compelling showdown between undisputed champions and The Sporting News breaks down the betting lines and the best bet to make when Canelo and Charlo clash on September 30
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo betting odds
Per Unibet, Canelo is a $1.25 favourite while Charlo is a $4 underdog.
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Betting trends for Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
Odds courtesy Unibet:
- Canelo via KO/TKO: $3.85
- Canelo via decision: $1.68
- Charlo via KO/TKO: $10.50
- Charlo via decision: $6.25
- Draw: $16
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo prediction, best bets
There are so many variables at play heading into this fight. Among the most intriguing is how Charlo will fare moving up two weight classes to challenge Alvarez. Will his ability to deliver and take a punch be affected by the additional 14 pounds? Will he have the same speed? But there’s also the question of whether Canelo is on the downside of his career and showing signs of a decline in skill.
Given what we know about Canelo, he hasn’t looked great over his last three fights. But to be more specific, he hasn’t looked like Canelo. He fell short against Dmitry Bivol at light heavyweight but won his next two fights against Gennadiy Golovkin and John Ryder. Many expected him to stop both Golovkin —who had never been knocked down — and Ryder but Canelo cruised to decisions. His shrinking punch output is something to be concerned with but will that decline be enough for Charlo to overcome?
MORE: Everything you need to know about Canelo vs. Charlo
Probably not.
Charlo is also relatively economical with his punch output but his power has been on display over the course of the past eight years. Since October 2015, eight of Charlo’s nine wins have come by knockout. Only Austin Trout went the distance. However, when Charlo does go the distance, he’s 1-1-1 with a loss to Tony Harrison and a draw to Brian Castano to go along with the victory over Trout. The signs say that Charlo will have to carry his punching power into a new weight class to get the win. He’ll have a height and reach advantage but that is something that Canelo has dealt with since the move to super middleweight.
Is it knockout or bust for Charlo?
Yes.
Jermell Charlo winning by stoppage is currently at $10.50 and will yield a hefty sum for anybody willing to put a wager on it. Given his track record, this seems to be the most likely scenario for a Charlo victory. However, Canelo has never been knocked down, much less knocked out. He hasn’t been badly buzzed in a fight since he fought Jose Cotto in 2010 as a welterweight. Unless his chin has deteriorated beyond recognition, it’s unlikely that Charlo can do what a bigger puncher like Golovkin was unable to do.
Canelo’s history of fights in Vegas suggests that he’s going to be favored by the judges. He’s been the beneficiary of some questionable scorecards in fights against Floyd Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Bivol, and Golovkin. Charlo will have to win 10 rounds just to be awarded 6 and that makes it increasingly difficult to confidently place a wager on him to win a decision.
In all likelihood, Canelo will find a way to win. He remains an excellent counterpuncher with good upper body movement and a fantastic body attack. Charlo has some defensive deficiencies that Canelo can take advantage of and that will negate the height and reach advantage.
And in the event of a close fight, it’s likely going to Canelo so that’s the safest bet here.
Sporting News prediction: Canelo via decision ($1.68)
