Brownlow Medal predictor: Club-by-club votes, odds and dark horses

Dylan Carmody

Brownlow Medal predictor: Club-by-club votes, odds and dark horses image

After two tense preliminary finals, we have our two grand finalists in Richmond and Greater Western Sydney, and are ready to kick off grand final week!

As always, Monday night sees the best of the AFL gather at Crown in Melbourne to see who will be named the year's Brownlow Medallist.

With the night of nights nearly here, Sporting News decided to take a look at each club, and see who was the favourite to take out the coveted prize.

MORE: Sporting News' Brownlow leaderboard after round 23

Adelaide Crows

The Crows had a tough season, falling out of the top eight in dramatic fashion, especially since they sat as high as third during the year. The fallout was swift, as they sacked coach Don Pyke, and captain Taylor Walker relinquished the captaincy.

Last Brownlow winner

Mark Ricciuto (2003)

The bookie's favourite

Brad Crouch ($151)

It was not the best of years for the Crows, but Brad Crouch was solid. averaging 30.3 touches per game.

Our pick

Rory Sloane and Brad Crouch (11 votes each)

Crouch and Sloane take the chocolates for the Crows from us, with Crouch starring in a tough season, and Sloane proving why he was such a valuable re-signing at the end of last year.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Rory Sloane (11 votes)

2) Brad Crouch (11 votes)

3) Matt Crouch (8 votes)

The dark horse

Alex Keath

Not that he will get close, but Keath had a better year than most people realise, and could nab a few votes here and there to surprise viewers.

Brisbane Lions

A finals drought broken, a finish of second on the ladder during the home-and-away season, and a qualifying final signalled a successful year for Brisbane, despite their straight sets exit. They were outstanding for a majority of 2019, and have seemed to show the rest of the competition that the Lions of old may be back.

Last Brownlow winner

Simon Black (2002)

The bookie's favourite

Lachie Neale ($5)

Our pick

Lachie Neale

It is not hard to see why Neale is the clear favourite for the Lions. He had an incredible season, dominating in the midfield, capped off by 51 disposals in the final game of the home-and-away season. 

An average of 31 disposals a game, 78% disposal efficiency and an average of six score involvements shows why Neale was one of the player's of the year.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Lachie Neale (23 votes)

2) Dayne Zorko (16 votes)

3) Charlie Cameron (11 votes)

The dark horse

Dayne Zorko

People have slept on the Lions' captain this year, likely due to the incredible year of Lachie Neale, but Zorko has been no joke. He booted 23 goals for the season, and averaged 22 touches. He has also averaged seven tackles a game, and will likely poll well for the 2019 medal.

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Carlton

A season of two halves for the Blues. They started off in torrid fashion, going 1-10 to begin the year, leading to the sacking of Brendon Bolton. However, since David Teague took over, Carlton's record improved dramatically, finishing the year at 6-5.

Last Brownlow winner

Chris Judd (2010)

The bookie's favourite

Patrick Cripps ($11)

Our pick

Patrick Cripps

The captain of the Blues, Cripps has been a standout all year for the club. He has led from the front, highlighted by the come-from-behind win against Brisbane before the bye that kickstarted the Carlton resurgence.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Patrick Cripps (24 votes)

2) Marc Murphy (7 votes)

3) Ed Curnow (6 votes)

The dark horse

Marc Murphy

It was a better year for Murphy, who averaged 25 touches for the year. The personal highlight was the former captain kicking the match-winning goal against Fremantle in Perth.

Collingwood

A year that ended in heartbreak once more for the Pies, knocked off in a preliminary final by GWS, going down by four points. That loss should not mask their success though, having managed to seal a fourth spot on the ladder despite a multitude of injuries.

Last Brownlow winner

Dane Swan (2011)

The bookie's favourite

Brodie Grundy ($15)

Our pick

Brodie Grundy

The Pies' ruckman is arguably the best in the competition, challenged only by Max Gawn. He is as clean as they come, with great hands and kicking skills. He averages 21 disposals, six score involvements and 43 hitouts a game.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Brodie Grundy (23 votes)

2) Adam Treloar (14 votes)

3) Scott Pendlebury (13 votes)

The dark horse

Adam Treloar

Treloar has had a solid season, with an average of 33 touches per game. He has been a star in the midfield, so expect him to poll well this year, with the possibility to poll high.

Essendon

It was a season of up and downs for the Bombers, with some incredible performances to take them to the elimination final, but there were some shockers mixed in there, including a 104-point loss to the Dogs. It also led to the implementation of a succession plan for 2020, with Ben Rutten set to take the reigns from John Worsfold at the end of next season.

Last Brownlow winner

James Hird (Essendon)

The bookie's favourite

Zach Merrett ($101)

Our pick

Zach Merrett

Merrett has been the standout for the Bombers this season, especially after the bye, where the Dons went on to win the next six out of seven games. Expect him to poll well, as he historically does.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Zach Merrett (21 votes)

2) Dylan Shiel (16 votes)

3) Dyson Heppell (9 votes)

The dark horse

Dylan Shiel

Shiel's first season in the red and black was decent, with an average of 26 disposals, and six score involvements, and he could nab a few votes here and there.

Fremantle

The Dockers were looking the goods for their first finals appearance since 2015 halfway through the year, but a dramatic dropoff led to Ross Lyon being shown the door after seven years at the club.

Last Brownlow winner

Nat Fyfe (2015)

The bookie's favourite

Nat Fyfe ($6.50)

Our pick

Nat Fyfe

A red-hot favourite for the Brownlow, Fyfe has had an incredible season. averaging 29 disposals, and booting 16 goals. Having won the medal in 2015, there's a very good chance Fyfe could take home a second Brownlow this year.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Nat Fyfe (25 votes)

2) Michael Walters (14 votes)

3) Bradley Hill (8 votes)

The dark horse

Michael Walters

There was a stretch of games in 2019 where Walters was the best player in the league. He dominated teams and booted truckloads of goals to put his name into the mix for the top prize. While that form dropped off, Walters could easily poll a number of votes.

Nat Fyfe

Geelong

The Cats had another strong year, taking out the minor premiership for 2019, however, their poor finals record came back to haunt them again, losing to Collingwood in the first week, knocking off West Coast in the second and going down to Richmond in the third to end their season.

Last Brownlow winner

Patrick Dangerfield (2016)

The bookie's favourite

Patrick Dangerfield ($2.60)

Our pick

Patrick Dangerfield

From one red-hot favourite to the next, Dangerfield is the most likely to take out the medal. An average of 27 touches per game, 27 goals, and an average of seven score involvements, Dangerfield has been out of this world, and deserves to bring home his second Brownlow.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Patrick Dangerfield (29 votes)

2) Tim Kelly (20 votes)

3) Gary Ablett (14 votes)

The dark horse

Tim Kelly

A proper dark horse with a chance to take out the top prize, Kelly has had one of the most dominating starts to an AFL career in history. He was phenomenal in his first year, and then took that to new heights in 2019, where he was the favourite to win the award halfway through the season.

Patrick Dangerfield

Gold Coast Suns

Well, their first four games were good? It was a deplorable year once more up north for the Suns, losing 18 games straight. They struggled to get anything going, and while they will once more earn the number one draft pick, it remains to be seen how they will get out of this rut.

Last Brownlow winner

Gary Ablett Jr. (2013)

The bookie's favourite

Not listed (David Swallow for most team votes- $1.80)

Swallow had one of the better years for the Suns, averaging 23 touches and booting 13 goals.

Our pick

Brayden Fiorini

Fiorini had a decent year for a young player, averaging 25 touches and four score assists, as well as five tackles.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Brayden Fiorini (6 votes)

2) David Swallow (5 votes)

3) Jarrod Harbrow (3 votes)

The dark horse

Jarrod Harbrow

Harbrow might poll a couple here and there, but you won't see too many Suns in the votes on Monday night.

Greater Western Sydney

What a year for the men in orange. Their first Grand Final berth after coming so close in 2016 and 2017, and while the task doesn't get any easier for their first flag (Richmond at the MCG), they are one step away from etching their names in history.

Last Brownlow winner

-

The bookie's favourite

Jeremy Cameron ($251)

The Coleman medallist is the bookie's GWS favourite to go the double and take out the Brownlow. While it almost certainly won't happen, Cameron should poll well considering he booted 75 goals for the season.

Our pick

Stephen Coniglio

While an injury sidelined the midfielder late in the year, Coniglio is still our pick to poll the most votes for the Giants. He was superb during the season, and is now even a small chance to return for the grand final this Saturday.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Stephen Coniglio (15 votes)

2) Tim Taranto (15 votes)

3) Jeremy Cameron (14 votes)

The dark horse

Tim Taranto

The youngster is a good chance to poll well this Brownlow count, having a solid year with an average of 28 touches, five clearances and six tackles per game.

Hawthorn

A disappointing year by Hawthorn standards in 2019, missing the finals, though they gave themselves every possible chance by knocking off West Coast in Perth in their final game of the year. Clarkson's men just kept coming, and they will be primed and ready to go come 2020.

Last Brownlow winner

Tom Mitchell (2018)

The bookie's favourite

Jaeger O'Meara ($501)

It was a solid year for O'Meara, with the former Sun averaging 26 touches, six tackles and six clearances. He will likely poll the most for the Hawks, and is primed for a big 2020 season.

Our pick

James Worpel

The dark horse

James Worpel

Don't sleep on the Worpedo. The second-year sensation has only gotten better in 2019, averaging 27 touches per game, as well as five tackles and six clearances, and should poll well for the count.

Sporting News Top Three

1) James Worpel (13 votes)

2) Jaeger O'Meara (8 votes)

3) Ricky Henderson (8 votes)

Melbourne

What a disaster. Dees fans can be a worrying lot, but not even the most pessimistic fan would have expected this. 17th place on the ladder after such promise from the 2018 year, notching only five wins for the season. Melbourne will need to come out firing in 2020, or there will be hell to pay once more.

Last Brownlow winner

Shane Woewodin (2000)

The bookie's favourite

Max Gawn ($101)

Our pick

Max Gawn

Gawn was far and away the standout for the Dees this season. He was often the only player that stood up when it was needed most, averaging 39 hit outs, as well as 18 disposals and six score involvements.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Max Gawn (18 votes)

2) Tom McDonald (5 votes)

3) Bayley Fritsch (8 votes)

The dark horse

Clayton Oliver

Other than Gawn, the only one who really stood out was Clayton Oliver. who averaged 30 disposals for the year, as well as seven clearances.

North Melbourne

Another year of two halves, this time for the Kangas. with the Roos struggling big time, resulting in the sacking of Brad Scott. With Rhyce Shaw taking over, it was a resurgence for North, who made a late run for finals before falling just short.

Last Brownlow winner

Ross Glendinning (1983)

The bookie's favourite

Ben Cunnington ($151)

A fantastic year for Cunnington, who averaged 27 touches per game, as well as seven clearances to boot. He was probably lucky to not be suspended during the season, but it means that Cunnington could still go far in the polls.

Our pick

Shaun Higgins

A great year for Higgins, who has done extremely well for himself over the course of the season. He was rewarded with a new contract, after there was talk of the Cats showing interest.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Shaun Higgins (14 votes)

2) Ben Cunnington (12 votes)

3) Ben Brown (10 votes)

The dark horse

Ben Brown

The big man for North kicked over 60 goals, so it is likely he will poll strongly in a number of games.

Port Adelaide

Another disappointing year for the Power, who missed the finals once again. They were in contention late in the year, but a massive loss to North Melbourne in round 22 sealed their fate with their percentage shattered.

Last Brownlow winner

-

The bookie's favourite

Travis Boak ($81)

Our pick

Travis Boak

Boak had a good season for Port Adelaide, averaging 30 touches for the year, as well as seven clearances and six score involvements, and it will be likely that he polls the most votes for the Power.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Travis Boak (11 votes)

2) Robbie Gray (11 votes)

3) Scott Lycett (7 votes)

The dark horse

Robbie Gray

Another stellar year for Gray, who averaged 22 disposals and kicked 24 goals. He could poll a few votes come Monday night.

Richmond

The Tiges are mounting their case for the next powerhouse team, alongside Brisbane (2001-2004), Geelong (2007-2011) and Hawthorn (2012-2015). They won the flag in 2017, should have made it in 2018 if not for a rampaging Mason Cox, and now are the favourites to take out their second flag in three years. They are almost unstoppable at the MCG, and they've done it all without Alex Rance in their backline. It's a scary proposition for what they'll look like in 2020, no matter the result on Saturday.

Last Brownlow winner

Dustin Martin (2017)

The bookie's favourite

Dion Prestia ($251)

Our pick

Dustin Martin, (Dion Prestia since Martin is ineligible)

With Dustin Martin ineligible, it will likely be Dion Prestia to be the most likely to take out the award for the Tiges, but Dusty is our pick for the most votes. He had an outstanding year, and even though he won't be able to win the award, he should poll the most votes for Richmond.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Dustin Martin (23 votes)

2) Bachar Houli (15 votes)

3) Tom Lynch (9 votes)

The dark horse

Dion Prestia

He is the next best bet for the Tiges to win the medal, as Prestia has had a strong season. He is a key member of the Richmond group, and a big reason to why they have made another grand final.

#dustin martin

St. Kilda

Another club struggling, another coach gone. Alan Richardson resigned halfway through the year, and while the improvement wasn't as big, the Saints still faired better after Brett Ratten took over. They will be hoping for a finals appearance in 2020, something they haven't achieved since 2012.

Last Brownlow winner

Robert Harvey (1998)

The bookie's favourite

Jack Billings ($151)

Our pick

Jack Billings

Billings has been solid for the Sainters this season, leading from the front with some strong performances. He should poll strongly for the club, and lead the count for them.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Jack Billings (11 votes)

2) Seb Ross (10 votes)

3) Jade Gresham (9 votes)

The dark horse

Seb Ross

A good chance to poll plenty of votes, Ross was one of the best during St. Kilda's victories this season, leading the way for the club.

Sydney

The Swans missed the finals for the first time since 2009, but fought hard throughout the year. However, they didn't seem to really get going, and will be looking to bounce back in 2020.

Last Brownlow winner

Adam Goodes (2006)

The bookie's favourite

Luke Parker ($251)

Our pick

Luke Parker

Parker has been the standout all year for the Swans, averaging 25 disposals and grabbing six clearances per game.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Luke Parker (18 votes)

2) Josh P Kennedy (7 votes)

3) Tom Papley (5 votes)

The dark horse

Jake Lloyd

Lloyd could poll well this year, having been solid for the Swans. He has picked up an average of 31 disposals per game, including an 83% disposal efficiency rate. 

West Coast

The Eagles looked primed to go deep into September, but a catastrophic loss in the last game of the year saw them miss out on the top four. They managed to knock over Essendon in the first week, but couldn't repeat it in the semi final, going down to the Cats.

Last Brownlow winner

Matt Priddis (2014)

The bookie's favourite

Luke Shuey ($67)

Shuey has had an outstanding season for the Eagles, averaging 27 touches per game, including seven clearances and an average of five tackles.

Our pick

Elliot Yeo

Yeo had a great year, and deserves to be rated higher by the bookies. He starred in plenty of games and could go far in the polls.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Elliot Yeo (24 votes)

2) Luke Shuey (14 votes)

3) Dom Sheed (8 votes)

The dark horse

Andrew Gaff

The quiet achiever, Gaff accumulated plenty of leather poisoning during the season, gathering high numbers throughout the year. He is a chance to go far in the votes, and should poll well.

Western Bulldogs

The Dogs stormed into the 2019 finals series, dominating the final weeks of the home-and-away season, before falling in the elimination final to the Giants. They looked the goods and there were shades of the 2016 premiership side about them. They will likely be just as dangerous in 2020.

Last Brownlow winner

Adam Cooney (2008)

The bookie's favourite

Marcus Bontempelli ($6.50)

Our pick

Marcus Bontempelli

The Bont had a brilliant year, averaging 26 disposals per game, as well as six clearances and seven score involvements.

Sporting News Top Three

1) Marcus Bontempelli (24 votes)

2) Josh Dunkley (18 votes)

3) Jack Macrae (18 votes)

The dark horse

Josh Dunkley

This was a breakout year for Dunkley, who had always been good, but never one of the best. He consistently racked up 30 plus touches per game, and looked every bit of a class footballer. Expect him to poll well this Brownlow count.

Dylan Carmody

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