Brownlow Medal 2018: Tom Mitchell clear favourite from Dustin Martin and Max Gawn

Angus Reid

Brownlow Medal 2018: Tom Mitchell clear favourite from Dustin Martin and Max Gawn image

The Brownlow Medal, AFL's most prestigious individual honour.

Joining a list that includes Malcolm Blight, Tony Lockett, Leigh Matthews, Ian Stewart, Dick Reynolds, Bob Skilton, Gary Ablett, both senior and junior, Paul Kelly, James Hird, Michael Voss, Adam Goodes, Chris Judd and many other greats of the game is obviously special, and on Monday, September 24th, we add another player to the honoured group.

There is a clear front-runner, but Rohan Connolly has picked a surprise top-three in this year's medal race. So you don't miss a moment of the action, click here.

"Who will win the 2018 Brownlow Medal? There's no doubt who the bookies think will win, and I'd say probably 99 per cent of the football world agree. Hawthorn's Tom Mitchell is an incredibly short-priced favourite for the Brownlow, he's paying just $1.62, with the next best bet according to betting agencies being Richmond's reigning Brownlow Medalist Dustin Martin at $7," Connolly told Sporting News.

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Let's look at the contenders.

TOM MITCHELL

"I think the odds are correct and history suggests that Mitchell has all the hallmarks of a prospective Brownlow Medal  winner," Connolly said.

"He's a midfield ball-magnet and the Brownlow Medal in the last 25, 30 years really has become a midfielder's medal essentially with only a couple of exceptions.

"No one racks up touches like Tom Mitchell does. He averaged an outstanding 35.3 disposals per game and of course, he waltzed into the All Australian side.

"But, his ability to continually win the ball was phenomenal, I don't think we've seen many players like him. He got off to a pretty good start in round one against Collingwood when he racked up 54 disposals. Those sort of tallies were virtually unheard of until the likes of Dane Swan emerged a few years back.

"Mitchell actually had 50+ disposals in two games this season and no fewer than 11 games in which he was picking up 40 possessions. Just incredible sorts of numbers.

"In a side without a deep or stud-studded midfield, his performance really stood out to the umpires."

DUSTIN MARTIN

"Most people seem to think Dusty hasn't had quite the stellar season that he had in 2017," Connolly said.

"Nonetheless, he has to be a serious chance and there's a number of reasons why.

"Once you poll well in the Brownlow Medal, you continue to poll well. I don't know if players lodge in the umpires' subconscious, but you'll see that a lot that once a player has a good Brownlow year, he tends to continue to poll well even if he hasn't played as well.

"The other thing about Martin though is that he's actually averaging only four disposals fewer than last year, so he still has a very high number of possessions, he's up in the high 20s. 

"The impact he has with his disposals is something that can't be ignored. He kicks goals, he creates goals, he's a beautiful user of the football, and again very eye-catching. 

"Of course visibly, he's pretty distinctive with that haircut and tattoos left, right and centre, so Dusty's still a pretty good chance."

 

MAX GAWN

"It's been a long, long time since a ruckman won a Brownlow Medal, you have to go all the way back to 1992 when Footscray's Scott Wynd was the last hitout-man to win the Brownlow, and that's of course 26 years ago now," Connolly said.

"Gawn's had an incredible season, he recorded over 1000 hitouts, averaging more than 45 per game. 

"He's very prominent at centre bounces, so right under the umpire's nose. If you're talking about standing out from the crowd, it's pretty hard to miss big Maxy, he's a giant and has a very healthy beard.

"He's the third favourite.

"For what it's worth, my one, two, three for this year's Brownlow Medal are Tom Mitchell to win, I'm going for a teammate of Max Gawn's to finish runner-up in Clayton Oliver.

"Oliver's had a wonderful season, wins the ball inside and out. Number three in this year's Brownlow might surprise a few people, but I'm going for West Coast's Elliot Yeo, he's had a wonderful season, moved back into the midfield off the halfback flank and picked up a  lot of the ball. He always uses it well, and he's a really classy player."

Angus Reid

Angus Reid Photo