AFL Fixtures: Ranking the difficulty of your AFL team's fixture for the 2020 season

Lachlan McKirdy

AFL Fixtures: Ranking the difficulty of your AFL team's fixture for the 2020 season image

The 2020 AFL fixtures have been released with some mouth-watering matches getting fans excited for the year ahead. 

Richmond will take on Carlton in the opening game of the season, while Sydney will host Essendon and Joe Daniher in round two. 

Every year fans ask the same question, how good is my team's draw?

Well this year, Sporting News has you covered with a formula to evaluate the strength of your team's draw. 

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Take a look at how we make our calculations down below. 

How we calculate the strength of the fixtures?

Points will be awarded to teams the more difficult their fixture is, so the team with the most points at the end will have the most difficult draw.

We've broken the draw into three different categories to base our calculations on. 

First, points are awarded based on the team you are playing and where they finished in the 2019 home & away season. 

2018 Ladder Position Points Awarded
1st - 4th 4
5th - 8th 3
9th - 14th 2
15th - 18th 1

Second, points will be awarded based on the number of short or long turnarounds they have. 

Length of Turnaround Points Awarded
Five-Day 3
Six-Day 1
Eight-Day -1
9+ Day -2

Finally, teams will be given points or have points taken away if they have extended stretch of games at home or away.

These are only given if teams would have otherwise had to have flown interstate for that game.

For example, Collingwood having to play Carlton away at the MCG doesn't count as an 'away game'.

Length of Home Games Stretch Points Awarded
Three Games -3
Two Games -1

 

Length of Away Games Stretch Points Awarded
Three Games 3
Two Games 1

The final influencer on the overall difficulty is whether the team has to play top four clubs back-to-back or in some cases, three weeks in a row.

Top Four Clashes Points Awarded
Two in a row 2
Three in a row 3

POINTS TABLE JUST ON HOME AND AWAY FIXTURES

Team Points
West Coast 57
Collingwood 56
GWS GIANTS 56
Carlton 55
Hawthorn 55
Adelaide Crows 54
Essendon 54
Geelong 54
Melbourne  54
Brisbane 53
Gold Coast  53
North Melbourne 53
Port Adelaide 53
Richmond 53
Sydney Swans 53
Fremantle 52
St Kilda 51
Western Bulldogs 51

Based on just the draw, West Coast have been handed the toughest draw purely based on the teams they face based on their 2019 finishing position. 

West Coast play seven out of a possible eight matches against top four finishers from 2019.

Collingwood and the GIANTS have also been handed a relatively tough draw while Carlton could consider themselves unlucky. 

Down the other end of the table, the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Fremantle have what could be considered the easiest draw. 

The 2019 Premiers have also lucked out with a relatively favourable draw. 

 

ADJUSTING THE TABLE FOR VARIABLES

Now we take those numbers and adjust them for things like short or long turnarounds, stretches of home/away games and back-to-back top-four clashes that can be harder to bounce back from. 

Here is a table of the combined total for all those adjustments. 

Team Points
West Coast 2
Collingwood 0
GIANTS 1
Carlton -3
Hawthorn 5
Adelaide 3
Essendon -3
Geelong 1
Melbourne 0
Brisbane 6
Gold Coast 1
North Melbourne 4
Port Adelaide -3
Richmond 1
Sydney 1
Fremantle 0
St Kilda 0
Western Bulldogs -1

The biggest points influence here is for Brisbane, mainly because of their number of short turnarounds and back-to-back top four fixtures. 

The Lions play Geelong and Richmond in rounds seven and eight and Collingwood and Geelong in rounds 16 and 17. They also have one five-day turnaround and six six-day turnarounds. 

Hawthorn have five points to add to their difficulty, facing Collingwood and Geelong in rounds three and four. They also face Brisbane in round one in a horror opening month of footy. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Carlton, Essendon and Port Adelaide come out more favourably thanks to some longer turnarounds and more home games. 

Port Adelaide, in particular, have a stretch of three straight games in Adelaide from rounds 13 to 15, including a showdown against the Crows. 

FINAL TABLE OF FIXTURE DIFFICULTY

No. Team Points
1 Hawthorn 60
2 West Coast 59
2 Brisbane Lions 59
4 GWS GIANTS 57
4 Adelaide 57
4 North Melbourne 57
7 Collingwood 56
8 Geelong 55
9 Melbourne 54
9 Gold Coast 54
9 Richmond 54
9 Sydney Swans 54
13 Carlton 52
13 Fremantle 52
15 Essendon 51
15 St Kilda 51
17 Port Adelaide 50
18 Western Bulldogs 49

The Hawks have been handed the toughest draw according to our calculations, as previously mentioned due to the number of their back-to-back matches against top four opponents. 

West Coast follow not far behind thanks to their seven six-day turnarounds and having to play seven out of eight possible matches against the 2019 top four.

Western Bulldogs have been given what can be seen as the easiest draw, with only playing each of last year's top four once. For a team that finished inside the top eight, that is great news for Bulldogs fans. 

Port Adelaide closely follow thanks to a number of back-to-back games at Adelaide Oval and thanks to the fact they also only play each of last year's top four once. 

TOUGHEST START TO 2020

TEAM POINTS
Hawthorn 14
Collingwood 13
Adelaide 11
Carlton 11
North Melbourne 11
GIANTS 11
St Kilda 10
Western Bulldogs 10
Brisbane Lions 10
Melbourne 10
West Coast 9
Richmond 9
Geelong 9
Gold Coast 9
Port Adelaide 8
Sydney Swans 7
Essendon 7
Fremantle 7

Based purely on who they are playing, Hawthorn has the toughest opening month. They come up against Brisbane, Fremantle, Collingwood and Geelong. 

Down the other end, the Swans, Bombers and Dockers have a good start to the year, avoiding all the top four sides and each playing bottom four sides at least twice. 

TOUGHEST END TO 2020

Team Points
West Coast 13
GWS GIANTS 12
Adelaide 12
Essendon 12
Port Adelaide 12
Gold Coast 11
Western Bulldogs 11
Geelong 10
Brisbane 10
Fremantle 10
Collingwood 9
Carlton 9
Hawthorn 9
St Kilda 9
Melbourne 8
North Melbourne 7
Richmond 7
Sydney Swans 7

The Sydney Swans also have a very good end to the year with a run that includes the Demons and the Suns.

The 2019 Premiers will also love their back-end of 2020, with games against Adelaide, Carlton and Fremantle to look forward to. 

While West Coast will hope they have a top-eight spot wrapped up, with games against the Lions (A), Collingwood (H) and Western Bulldogs (A).

These stats are obviously not meant to be an accurate representation of what will happen next season, it's a fair indication of what your side can look forward to in 2020. 

Lachlan McKirdy

Lachlan McKirdy Photo