AFL 2021 predictions: Every club's pass mark for this season

Tom Naghten

Kieran Francis

Ed Chisholm

AFL 2021 predictions: Every club's pass mark for this season image

There's nothing like the optimism of pre-season to get fans dreaming of glory for the year ahead.

New recruits have freshened up the place, the big names are training the house down and a reworked game plan is set to take the competition by storm.

Unfortunately for many teams, the reality will be different.

So what will be considered a success for your club in 2021?

We've given each club a pass mark for the upcoming season, now bear in mind, just like at school, not everyone will make the grade.

Adelaide

Avoid the wooden spoon

The spoon looks like a race in two between North Melbourne and the Crows, with Matthew Nicks’ men hoping to avoid finishing on the bottom for a second straight year.

On paper, they actually look weaker than 2020, with Brad Crouch, Kyle Hartigan and Rory Atkins heading out the door and young midfielder Jackson Hately coming in.

With senior players another year older, the improvement is going to have to come from their younger brigade, with the likes of Hately, Reilly O’Brien, Darcy Fogarty, Chayce Jones, Ned McHenry, Lachie Sholl and Josh Worrell set to form the core of the team moving forward.

Brisbane

Make the grand final

The Lions have finished second two years on the trot now, going out in straight sets in 2019 and falling at the preliminary final hurdle last year.

Their age profile couldn’t be better for a crack at the flag and they’ve added a seemingly fit again Joe Daniher to their list.

If big Joe can fit in well with Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron in the forward line, Brisbane will no doubt be in the mix again and hopefully can avoid a poor performance when it counts in the big games.

Joe Daniher Brisbane Lions

Carlton

Better than 50 per cent win rate

The Blues managed seven wins in a shortened season last year and they’ll be looking to improve on that having bolstered their squad over the off-season.

Carlton went hard for Adam Saad and Zac Williams, adding pace and outside run, as well as some grunt to their midfield in a bid to climb up the ladder.

Their season may well rest on whether they can get Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow on the park, and if not, whether they can kick a winning score without them.

Collingwood

Play finals

The pressure is well and truly on at the Pies after a disastrous off-season, with Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips all leaving the club as part of a salary dump.

Despite the losses, Collingwood’s best 22 still looks the goods, but a slow start will turn the blowtorch on the club and particularly coach Nathan Buckley.

With Jordan De Goey expected to move into the midfield, their forward line looks less potent, meaning their season could rest on the ability of Brody Mihocek to spearhead the attack and hit the scoreboard.

Essendon

Finish top 12

The Bombers went hard for young midfielder Jye Caldwell but that was only after watching Joe Daniher, Adam Saad and Orazio Fantasia walk out the door.

Ben Rutten certainly appears to have a big task on his hands as he attempts to give the players and fans a reason to be excited by the current team.

Draft night certainly brought back some enthusiasm, with Archie Perkins, Nik Cox and Zach Reid joining the club as top 10 picks.

It’s not a full rebuild for the Dons, but they will have one eye on the future going into 2021.

#Zach Merrett

Fremantle

11 wins

The start will be key for the young Dockers who play Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Adelaide in round four, five and six respectively.

If Justin Longmuir’s side can bank a few wins early they may well have their tails up for an unlikely finals push.

In Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Adam Cerra they’ve got one of the best young on-ball groups in the comp, add in dual Brownlow winner Nat Fyfe and they’ll be more than competitive with most sides.

Geelong

Win the premiership

After last year's grand final disappointment against the Tigers, the Cats are in an even better position list-wise.

They've loaded up in the trade period, landing Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith most notably, and are positioned for a flag. Anything less would be considered a failure.

The Cats know they are deeply entrenched in a premiership window and are running out of time to deliver – only a premiership will validate the high-profile changes they've made over the off-season.

Gold Coast

Eight wins, but a stronger finish

After last year's fade out in the second-half of the year, the Suns must aim to become known as a consistent footy side in 2021.

Winning four of their first seven games in 2020, before collecting just one more against North Melbourne in round 14, the Suns showed enough to suggest they have it in them to be competitive right through the season.

A full year on the paddock for 2019 No. 1 pick Matt Rowell, the ongoing growth of fellow rising stars like Izak Rankine and Noah Anderson, plus a solid dusting of experience through the list – the Suns have the pieces to be a tough team to take down throughout 2021.

GWS

Finish 10th or better

After being a consistent finals outfit in past seasons, GWS are one of the teams expected to drop in 2021.

Their list has taken a huge hit, particularly with Jeremy Cameron's move to the Cats and Zac Williams' move to Carlton. The loss of rising guns Jackson Hately and Jye Caldwell, plus role-player Aidan Corr also hurts.

The Giants have added Jesse Hogan and Braydon Preuss - both astute pick-ups but both currently sidelined with injury - not to mention the club landed some serious young talent in the draft, 12th pick Tanner Bruhn so far the standout.

Leon Cameron's side still has more than enough firepower to be capable of finals, but there are too many teams above them who look better off.

Leon Cameron

Hawthorn

More than six wins and finish better than 15th

Not much is expected of Hawthorn this year, with Alastair Clarkson to continue moulding his young list. But the Hawks must avoid a finish worse than last year's 15th.

There's mountains of experience missing. Isaac Smith and James Frawley have both left, Paul Puopolo and Tom Scully have retired, not to mention James Sicily and Jack Gunston will miss most of the year through injury.

But the Hawks have enough young talent to trouble teams here and there, and should be expected to avoid a bottom-three finish, especially with Clarkson's record.

Melbourne

Reach the finals (convincingly) 

Arguably the team and coach under the most pressure heading into season 2021.

The Dees have the list to play finals but past years have shown that means nothing for Simon Goodwin and his men. But this year, that has to change.

They addressed a key deficiency upfront with the acquisition of key forward Ben Brown over the summer, and already boast a list with names like Christian Petracca, Max Gawn, Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver.

Injuries to Brown and Sam Weideman continue to be a concern, particularly if Tom McDonald can't hit the scoreboard.

Anything equal to or worse than last year's 9th finish won't do.

North Melbourne

Avoid the wooden spoon

The positive for the Roos is their task is simple: don't come last.

Virtually everyone's spoon prediction, North Melbourne look set for a tough campaign given their changes over the off-season.

After a huge roster clean out and the arrival of new coach David Noble, North are building towards being a consistent finals contender in future years.

There's still some serious young talent on their list, and Noble will hope to provide fans with a bit of hope for the future. But anything better than a bottom two finish will come as a surprise.

Port Adelaide

Preliminary final

The Power won the minor premiership in 2020 playing their attacking brand of football and even won their qualifying final to get a week off into the preliminary final.

However, they fell short against eventual premier Richmond - and a trip to the preliminary finals is again the minimum in 2021.

With their young side, and having added the likes of Aliir Aliir and Orazio Fantasia, you can expect improvement from the Power this season.

But the Tigers will again be formidable and the Cats have improved by adding Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith.

Port Adelaide are going to be a contender for the next few seasons but it might be unrealistic for them to make the jump to a premiership in 2021.

Charlie Dixon

Richmond

Win the premiership

After winning three flags in the past four years, winning another premiership is the only acceptable outcome for the Tigers.

Having retained the majority of their list, there is no doubt Richmond will be thereabouts in 2021.

With Geelong having significantly improved their squad and the natural development of the young lists at Port Adelaide and Brisbane, it will be a bigger challenge for the Tigers to three-peat.

But the motivation for the yellow-and-black is there - another premiership will see this team talked about as a dynasty alongside Brisbane in the early 2000's and Hawthorn through 2013-15.

St Kilda

Contend for the top four

The young Saints played finals for the first time since 2011 last season and were in top four contention for most of the campaign.

With a building list, a tougher draw and the strength of teams above them, Brett Ratten's side will be keen to consolidate themselves as a finals team before aiming for bigger things in the coming years.

St Kilda play 10 of their first 12 games at their favoured Marvel Stadium, so expect them to surge up the ladder by the halfway mark of the season.

Sydney

Finish in the top half of the bottom 10

The Swans only won five games in 2020 but played some good football toward the back end of the season.

With Adelaide, North Melbourne and Hawthorn all looking to struggle this campaign, the Swans will be hoping to surprise a few teams and position themselves around 9th to 13th.

They will be competing for spots on the ladder with the likes of Gold Coast and Essendon, and if they can get Lance Franklin back firing, it should be an improved season for the Bloods.

West Coast

Finish in the top four

After finishing fifth in 2020 without their famed home ground advantage, the Eagles will be hoping to sneak back into the top four this season.

With an ageing list, West Coast are unlikely to be premiership contenders in the coming years - so they need to make the most of players such as Josh Kennedy, Jeremy McGovern and Shannon Hurn while they can.

If the Eagles get up-and-going at Optus Stadium then they should be around the top four mark, but if they falter at home, we could see Adam Simpson's team slide down the ladder.

Western Bulldogs

Win a final

Like St Kilda, the Bulldogs seem like they are on the precipice of becoming one of the strongest teams in the competition - particularly with their midfield, which is arguably the best in the league after the addition of Adam Treloar.

The Bulldogs scraped into the eight last season and then went down to the Saints in a heartbreaking elimination final defeat.

Luke Beveridge's team will be hoping to win a final in 2021 as they build their next flag-challenging side over the next couple of seasons.

Adam Treloar

Tom Naghten

Tom Naghten Photo

Tom Naghten is a senior editor at The Sporting News Australia where he's been part of the team since 2017. He predominantly covers boxing and MMA. In his spare time, he likes to watch Robbie Ahmat's goal against the Kangaroos at the SCG in 2000.

Kieran Francis

Kieran Francis Photo

Kieran Francis is a senior editor at The Sporting News based in Melbourne, Australia. He started at Sportal.com.au before being a part of the transition to Sporting News in 2015. Just prior to the 2018 World Cup, he was appointed chief editor of Goal.com in Australia. He has now returned to The Sporting News where his passions lay in football, AFL, poker and cricket - when he is not on holiday.

Ed Chisholm

Ed Chisholm Photo

Ed Chisholm is a content producer for Sporting News Australia.