AFL 2020 season review: How far away is your club from a premiership?

Tom Naghten

AFL 2020 season review: How far away is your club from a premiership? image

The bizarre 2020 AFL season is over for 10 teams and that means some potentially harsh reviews and socially-distanced Mad Mondays.

Some clubs, like North Melbourne, have already begun clearing out their list as they look to the future.

Others will be rueing missed opportunities and watching the finals with a sour taste in their mouth.

MORE: Everything you need to know about the grand final | Brownlow Medal

With 2021 preparations already started at more than half the teams in the competition, we take a look at how close, or far, your club is away from being a contender.

Melbourne

Ladder position: 9th (36 points, 107.8%)

Verdict: The Dees' premiership window is open. Just. 

Another heart-breaking ninth-placed finish for Melbourne when just weeks earlier they looked certainties.

Quality doesn't seem to be their problem, they've got a strong list and a pretty good age profile, though they lack a killer instinct to turn them into genuine contenders.

If yet another off-season spent stewing on what has been a disappointing campaign doesn't light a fire under them, nothing will.

They also have some obvious deficiences that need to be addressed, either through recruitment or development.

Sam Weideman needs to become the key forward target he clearly has the potential to be while their stuttering ball movement and transition won't cut it against the top teams.

They're not far off, but at the same time, it's not an easy fix.

GWS

Ladder position: 10th (32, 95.6%)

Verdict: Still contenders, but also who knows?

Is there a more bewildering team in the competition?

On paper, they should have backed up their grand final appearance with another season near the top of the ladder, instead they never got in to gear and limped to the finish line.

How many established Giants can say their 2020 was an improvement on last season? Beyond Harry Perryman who hadn't even played 40 games at the start of the year, not many.

The club cleary thinks Leon Cameron is the man for the job, extending his contract earlier this month, but the pressure has to be mounting.

It will be a travesty if 89 points is the closest this squad gets to a premiership, but we're not giving up on them yet.

They have the cattle and depth to be the envy of the competition, though at least for now, they appear to have lost the steel and polish that saw them win a final in each of the past four seasons.

Carlton

Carlton

Ladder position: 11th (28, 94.3%)

Verdict: Not yet, but soon.

David Teague's first full season in charge of the Blues didn't deliver a return to the finals but it has to be considered a success.

Seven wins in a shortened season is nothing to sniff at and they finished above the Bombers, giving them all-important bragging rights.

In reality, Carlton are probably one more year away from having the squad to go deep into the finals.

With Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones leading the defence and Harry McKay and hopefully a fit Charlie Curnow up the other end, their key position stocks are sorted for several years.

Sam Walsh has kicked on to help Patrick Cripps out in the middle and Jack Martin has slotted in nicely, but if the Blues are to take another step, it will have to come from their mid-tier players.

The elephant in the room has been the lack of impact from some of the club's recent high draft picks not named Sam Walsh. If they can't pitch in, or Teague can't find improvement elsewhere, Carlton's ceiling may not be as high as they'd like to think.

Fremantle

Ladder position: 12th (28, 93.7%)

Verdict: Give them two years, then look out.

The Dockers had by far the most miserly defence of the teams not in the finals and even bested three of the top eight, including the high-flying Lions.

New coach Justin Longmuir probably couldn't have asked for a better return in what many predicted would be a long year for Freo.

Add Caleb Serong to their long list of midfielders on the cusp of being A-graders and they look to be putting together something pretty special.

If Matt Taberner's improvement can take some of the pressure off Jesse Hogan, that should go some way to looking after their scoring woes (ranked 16th in points for).

Any team with Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters (both 29) will always be a handful, but it will be up to the youngsters to turn them into contenders. 

Essendon

Ladder position: 13th (26, 79.2%)

Verdict: *Gulp*

If not now, when?

The Bombers have been aggressive in their recruitment for several seasons, going after players who will make them better immediately. Unfortunately, it hasn't paid off.

With the core of the team now in what should be their peak, Essendon are now further from a flag than they were when finishing seventh in 2017.

Their lack of finals success is well documented, as is the sloppy handover from John Worsfold to Ben Rutten.

With another busy summer expected, will Ben Rutten be able to unite the club and integrate yet more new recruits into the squad?

Connor McKenna has left, Joe Daniher and Adam Saad are free agents, Orazio Fantasia, Michael Hurley and Cale Hooker are all being linked to exits in what could be a massive list upheaval.

The new coach might not even get through half a season before the rebuild chatter begins.

Gold Coast

Ladder position: 14th (22, 90.6%)

Verdict: They're coming. Nah, we mean for real this time.

If last season was the turning point in stopping the exodus, 2020 was vindication for those players who showed faith in the club.

Fresh off a wooden spoon, the Suns gave a glimpse into their future with a red-hot start to the season for some tight losses took the wind out of their sails.

Matt Rowell took the competition by storm in the opening rounds before injuring his shoulder, while his mate and number two pick Noah Anderson more than justified his high selection.

With another year under their belts, Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Ben King are A-graders in waiting and, importantly, locked into long-term contracts.

Even off-season recruits Hugh Greenwood and Brandon Ellis haven't missed a beat since joining.

Their late-season form will be a concern for coach Stuart Dew, but the future certainly looks bright. Will 2021 be the year they make their finals debut?

Hawthorn

Ladder position: 15th (20, 84.1%)

Verdict: If anyone can do it, it's Clarko. But even he probably can't.

Lucky the Hawks banked a heap of flags in recent times because it might be a while before they get back there.

They've got the oldest list in the comp and their top-end talent stocks are paper thin, so it's hard to see where their improvement is going to come from.

Alastair Clarkson has preferred to recruit from other clubs, but after years of topping up their list from outside, Hawthorn are going to finally have to go to the draft.

That's not to say in the likes of Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara, James Sicily, James Worpel, Chad Wingard, Jack Gunston and Luke Bruest et al. they don't have talent.

It's their bottom six and lack of depth that will hurt them over the next few seasons while they bring through some much-needed youth over what might be a lean run.

Sydney

John Longmire Sydney

Ladder position: 16th (20, 82.6%)

Verdict: The good thing about bottoming out? The only way is up.

Two consecutive seasons out of the finals could be considered a disaster by the Swans' recent standards, but with the experience they've lost over the past two years, it wasn't hard to see coming.

Though there is plenty for Sydney fans to be optimistic about. Lance Franklin, Isaac Heeney, Dane Rampe and George Hewett all missed big chunks of this season with injury, their inclusions will instantly improve the team.

Tom Papley has also committed to staying at the club, while the likes of James Rowbottom, Nick Blakey, Justin McInerney, Ollie Florent, Will Hayward, Dylan Stephens look the goods.

In the final two rounds they pushed contenders Brisbane and Geelong to show they're not too far off.

With another pre-season into some of the club's youngsters, improvement should come naturally, so should a rise back up the ladder.

The question is, will Buddy and warhorse Josh Kennedy be around for one last tilt?

North Melbourne

Ladder position: 17th (12, 71.2%)

Verdict: Batten down the hatches, it's going to get worse before it gets better.

The Roos made their position loud and clear when they delisted 11 players last week, including two current members of the leadership group.

That's what they call a hard rebuild.

North essentially conceded they aren't winning a flag any time soon, so rather than battle on and hope for a mid-table finish at best, they'll bottom out, get games into the kids and hopefully when they do bounce, it'll be higher than it might have been if they dragged out their rebuild.

That's going to mean some pain for the Kangaroos faithful in the short time, but at least that brings high draft picks with it.

It's not all bad; Tarryn Thomas, Cam Zurhaar and Jy Simpkin are all quality prospects, while in Shaun Higgins, Todd Goldstein, Jac Zeibell and Robbie Tarrant they have experienced pros to show them the ropes.

But yeah, if you're a North fan, maybe take up meditation or something - you're going to have to be patient.

Adelaide

Ladder position: 18th (12, 64.4%)

Verdict: What a difference a month makes

Not all wooden spoons are made equal.

While a few weeks ago Crows fans would have been wondering if their team would ever win another game, they managed to string three together in the final four weeks to bring some joy back to the club.

The nucleus of a good side is definitely there and with Tom Doedee, Fischer McAsey, Reilly O'Brien, Elliott Himmelberg and Darcy Fogarty, their key positions look in safe hands for a long time to come.

Brad Crouch's future remains unclear and Rory Sloane isn't getting younger, leaving their midfield looking a touch thin, though that's what high draft picks are for.

Matthew Nicks would have been hoping for more wins in his first season in charge, but the last month will do wonders for the belief around the club as they look to climb up the ladder.

Don't expect it to happen overnight though, Adelaide are probably two or three years away from finals contention yet.

Tom Naghten

Tom Naghten Photo

Tom Naghten is a senior editor at The Sporting News Australia where he's been part of the team since 2017. He predominantly covers boxing and MMA. In his spare time, he likes to watch Robbie Ahmat's goal against the Kangaroos at the SCG in 2000.