Few AFL seasons in recent memory have arrived at the last home and away round with as many finals permutations still possible as this week’s will.
In a season which hasn’t always sparkled for quality of football, it’s at least a fascinating conclusion. It’s even feasible that the top four teams on the ladder could finish equal on 16 wins, with percentage only separating them.
Are we any closer to working out the likely 2019 premier? It’s likely to be a September in which hosting rights and match-ups between particular teams will play huge factors.
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So let’s put our you-know-whats on the line. Before the dust settles on the finals schedule, I think there’s at least four potential premiership teams. Let’s have a look at their credentials.
Brisbane
Why not? It’s the question you really need to ask yourself when considering potential premiers when you look at the AFL ladder and scratch your head, a team which finished 15th with five wins last year now on top with 16 wins. They haven’t been by accident. Chris Fagan’s side has found a rare groove, plays inspired, fast football, and has pluck to spare, so many of those wins this season featuring comebacks by the Lions, none the least that thriller against Geelong on Saturday.
It also has virtually no injuries compromising its plans. Brisbane is the highest-scoring team in the AFL, averaging nearly 93 points per game. The dynamic Charlie Cameron is the only Brisbane goalkicker in the AFL’s leading 20, but there’s a good spread, with five players, including Eric Hipwood, Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko and Lincoln McCarthy having kicked 20 goals or more.
Home finals would be huge for the Lions in terms of premiership aspirations, given their 10-1 record at the Gabba this season, which makes Sunday’s last home and away game against Richmond at the MCG a massive occasion. Brisbane has played there just once this season, losing badly to Essendon, but it has also won six out of 10 on the road and is playing a more solid brand of football now than it was back in round three against the Bombers.
Of course, virtually every pundit in the land won’t be tipping the Lions against the Tigers this week. But watch the flag bandwagon fill to overflowing should they manage to do so.
Geelong
It’s not often a team, particularly one as experienced as the Cats, sits atop the AFL ladder for 20 of 22 rounds yet on the eve of the finals is only third flag favourite. But the doubts on Geelong aren’t contrived. After winning 11 of their first 12 games, the Cats have lost five of their last nine and can’t seem to get on a roll, going loss-win that whole time.
The daring and potency up forward of the first half of the season has seemingly mutated into overly-cautious, stop-start football, and the scoreboard has stopped ticking over. Geelong topped the 100 points six times in its first dozen games and was averaging 99.3 points per game. It’s managed to crack three figures just once in nine games since and has averaged 73.6, more than four goals per game less.
Can the Cats get back close enough to the sort of football necessary to win a flag? Well, the glass half-full attitude would be they’ve just pushed the new ladder leader to within one point away from home, they’re odds-on to host a final in Melbourne, they’re still No.2 for points scored and No.1 for fewest points conceded. It’s a decent foundation for a flag tilt.
What they desperately need is a return to top form from Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett, the likes of small pressure forwards like Luke Dahlhaus, Gary Rohan, Gryan Miers and Tom Atkins to click again as a group, to settle on a ruckman, and for Esava Ratugolea to offer consistent key position support for the overworked Tom Hawkins. Tick most of those boxes, and Geelong can still do it.
West Coast
Anyone who thinks the Eagles premiership hopes were torpedoed by Sunday’s six-point loss to Richmond didn’t watch the game properly. This is a potent team still very well-placed to win another premiership. If the Eagles beat Hawthorn well at home this week and Brisbane loses on the MCG to Richmond by enough, they will still get two home finals.
Their seven-goal opening term against the Tigers said plenty about a peak perhaps higher than their rivals. And they showed a keen streak of resilience in the wet, too, after Richmond got on top, fighting back to level scores against the best wet-weather team in the competition.
There’s a big decision to be made about rolling the dice on injured big man Nic Naitanui, whose powerful frame on-song would make a huge difference. Even without him, however, West Coast is competitive enough in the ruck and stoppage game.
It has three of the best midfielders in the business in Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff, a brilliantly-organised defence led by Shannon Hurn and Jeremy McGovern. Most of all, it has two powerful key forwards in Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, a clever medium-sizer in Jamie Cripps, and two dynamic small forwards in Liam Ryan and Willie Rioli.
This isn’t just a “pretty” team. It can hold its own in adversity. And if West Coast gets the game going on its terms, look out.
Richmond
The Tigers have been official flag favourites for a few weeks now, and it’s not hard to see why. They’re tough. They’re skilled. And their pressure game is perfectly-suited to the red-hot environment of finals football. After recovering from a disastrous run of injuries, Richmond has now strung together eight wins on the trot, Sunday’s victory the first in that sequence by any less than five goals.
The Tigers’ midfield is also red-hot right now, Dustin Martin right back to his Brownlow form, Dion Prestia and Kane Lambert always consistent, and Shane Edwards adding some smarts to the midfield group of late. There’s also the imminent return of skipper Trent Cotchin. Dylan Grimes and David Astbury have held the fort in defence very well in the absence of Alex Rance, and up forward, Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt have discovered some genuine chemistry.
Similarly to 2017, there’s also plenty of options at ground level near goal in the likes of Jason Castagna, Daniel Rioli, Shai Bolton, Liam Baker or Jack Ross, which is why even the loss of a precocious talent like Sydney Stack might not hurt the Tigers as much as it would other clubs.
Richmond’s stumble last year at the preliminary final hurdle shouldn’t mask the fact that this team has now set a competition standard for close to three years. They’re going to be very hard to beat once again. And if it pours on grand final day and they’re in it, get your money on!
The rest
Including Hawthorn, Adelaide and Port Adelaide, all technically still in finals contention, there are another seven teams which could theoretically win the premiership. Five of them are nowhere near good enough. If there is to be any upsetting of the apple cart this September, in my view, it will be one of two teams, Collingwood or the Western Bulldogs.
Frankly, though, I can’t see it happening. The Magpies looked ominous in dismantling Adelaide on Saturday, Jamie Elliott’s turning back the clock a key. They’ve got big “ins” on the way in Jordan de Goey and Jaidyn Stephenson. But injuries have kept the line-up unsettled all season. And unless there’s a big upset at the MCG on Sunday, the Pies are going to have to do it the hard way. They did play every week last September, of course. But they also surrendered a five-goal lead on grand final day to a fresher opponent.
The Bulldogs’ form right now, meanwhile, would have most opponents anxious. Their run and pressure is back, and they’re scoring. They have the 2016 experience to draw upon, which helps. But there’s plenty of inexperience in the side, too. Can they do what they’ve been doing for four straight weeks against the best in the AFL? It would be a massive achievement. This year, though, I think a bridge too far.
You can read more of RoCo’s work at Footyology.