Fantasy football owners just can't agree on a consensus draft strategy when it comes to running backs. Most seem to favor getting at least one RB in the first or second rounds and a handcuff toward the end, but what happens in the middle is up for debate. Some don't even agree with getting a back early, as the "Zero-RB" strategy has become more popular in recent years in response to increased committees and rookie breakouts. Regardless of your strategy, rankings tiers and sleepers are going to be highlighted on draft cheat sheet -- and will likely have a big effect on how you draft.
If you've played fantasy football for any length of time, you know that things rarely go as planned. "Sure things" get hurt, no-names emerge, and at the end of the season you wonder why you even bothered with all that draft prep in the first place. But that's not going to stop any of us from trying to get it right this year, and getting it right means being flexible, limiting risk, and giving yourself options. The best way to do that during your draft is to have a gameplan, pay attention to other drafters, and adapt.
Rankings tiers are always a dangerous game, as they can lead to overdrafting, but they also help you identify guys who provide similar upside/risk as other players -- perhaps player who will be drafted noticeably earlier. That can help you find value and strengthen your overall team.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2018 fantasy football cheat sheet
2018 Fantasy Football Tiers: Running backs to target in the first round
Tier 1, the absolute best of the best, is loaded with four backs who could all make a case for the top spot. In PPR leagues, Elliott would probably drop to No. 4, but, again, you can't go wrong with any of these four. They'll likely be the first four players off the board in most standard-league drafts, and they'll likely be four of the first five players off the board in PPR leagues.
1. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
2. Todd Gurley, Rams
3. David Johnson, Cardinals
4. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
A few wide receivers might go off the board after these top four, but it won't be long until our Tier-2 RBs start being drafted. Kamara could easily go fifth overall, and there's a real chance all of these guys go in the first round. It's likely one or two will slip to the second, but these are all solid RB1s, and it wouldn't be a surprise if any of them emerged as top-tier next guys next year. Obviously, with only nine guys in our first two tiers, there will be owners in your league who won't get one, but fortunately the next tier is also strong.
5. Alvin Kamara, Saints
6. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
7. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
8. Melvin Gordon, Chargers
9. Saquon Barkley, Giants
2018 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
2018 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings: Tier 3
You can argue that if you don't get one of the Tier-1 or 2 RBs, you should just wait a few more rounds to grab your first one (similar to the "Zero-RB" strategy). But if you just can't wait that long, the RBs in Tier 3 have plenty of upside. You'll likely see a few of these guys go in the second round, but if the first round is as RB heavy as we expect, then the second will be WR heavy. That means these guys will look like good values in the third.
Of course, all these guys have their warts, be it injury concerns (Freeman, Cook), production concerns (Mixon, McKinnon), consistency concerns (Howard, Ajayi, Henry), or suspension concerns (McCoy). Still, there are things to like about all of these players, starting with the fact that most should see heavy volume. Several have been RB1s in the past, and several more are in positions to break out and be RB1s this season
With that said, getting one of these guys as an RB2 gives you a nice advantage over your league mates who go RB-WR or WR-RB. Stacking yourself at RB in the first two rounds is not without risks, but it could certainly pay off. If you wait until the end of this tier and grab your first RB -- or skip it altogether -- you're also taking a risk, but it can also pay off if you give yourself plenty of options late. You'll also likely have to be more active on the waiver wire early in the season.
Perhaps riskiest of all is taking two guys from this tier. The opportunity cost of likely using second- and third-round picks on these guys seems a little high, and you can find similar players in the next two tiers. Also, if you're drafting one of these guys as an RB1, you'll want to get one you're reasonably sure will receive goal-line carries. That's a minor worry for Dalvin Cook and maybe Jerick McKinnon, though we expect both can do enough with receiving yards to still post good numbers. Either way, you'll want to make sure to draft handcuffs Latavius Murray and Matt Breida (or Joe Williams) later in the draft. Truthfully, that goes for all these guys, so receiving backs Giovani Bernard, Tarik Cohen, Corey Clement, and Dion Lewis should also be on your radar (and Chris Ivory, for obvious reasons).
10. Devonta Freeman, Falcons
11. Dalvin Cook, Vikings
12. Joe Mixon, Bengals
13. Jordan Howard, Bears
14. LeSean McCoy, Bills
15. Jay Ajayi, Eagles
16. Derrick Henry, Titans
17. Jerick McKinnon, 49ers
SLEEPERS:
8 QBs | 16 RBs | 19 WRs | 9 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team
2018 Fantasy Draft Strategy: Wait on RB...but not too long
You could make a case for a lot of these guy to be in the above tier, but playing time/talent level is a concern for virtually all of them. Mark Ingram, who's suspended for the first four games due to a PED violation, is the lone exception, as he'd be in Tier 2 if he was slated to play all 16 games.
It's tough to say when these guys are going to start coming off the board, but Tier 4 is where you're most likely to see overdrafting. If you don't have an RB1, you might feel the need to grab someone and take one of these players a round too early; if you're hunting for an RB2, you can get too excited about one of the rookies or overvalue one of the veterans. These are all fine backs and worth having, but they're not worth taking too soon.
The rookies could gain steam with strong preseasons, but they still carry risks. However, if you waited until the fifth round to draft your first back, you probably want to go for upside with a young guy instead of a "boring" veteran who will share touches. Then, give yourself more lotto tickets from the next few tiers to hedge your bets.
18. Alex Collins, Ravens
19. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
20. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins
21. Mark Ingram, Saints
22. Carlos Hyde, Browns
23. Lamar Miller, Texans
24. Marshawn Lynch, Raiders
25. Isaiah Crowell, Jets
26. Royce Freeman, Broncos
27. Chris Carson, Seahawks
28. Peyton Barber, Buccaneers
DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS:
Quarterback | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST
2018 Fantasy Football Draft Tips: "Zero-RB" strategy
What is the "Zero-RB" strategy? It basically means you wait until much deeper into your draft than one normally would to select your first RB. There's no set round, but it's likely you'll start filling out your RB depth chart after Round 6. As such, the guys in Tier 5 and 6 are likely who you will be choose between.
Why go this route? Well, the logic is that because there are so many running back busts, be it because of injury or otherwise, and so many running back breakouts every year, you're better off using your high picks on reliable players at other positions and going the sleeper/waiver-wire route with your backs.
Tier 5 features an interesting mix of players, from veteran committee backs who could score a bunch of TDs (Kelley, Anderson, Burkhead) to rookie sleepers (Johnson, Michel) to ace PPR backs who can produce in standard leagues as well as PPR (Johnson Jr., Clement, Montgomery, Lewis, Thompson). There are also some intriguing young backs who could be heavily involved in their team's offense, if not in Week 1 than at some point during the season (Penny, Perine, Booker, Williams, Mack, Foreman, Breida).
Do you really feel comfortable with any of these guys as your RB1 on draft day? Of course not, but that's the point. Surprise breakouts happen every year, and having a couple of these moderately price lotto tickets can make you look smart when a first-round back goes down for the season in Week 1.
29. Rob Kelley, Redskins
30. C.J. Anderson, Panthers
31. Duke Johnson Jr., Browns
32. Rashaad Penny, Seahawks
33. Ronald Jones II, Buccaneers
34. Samaje Perine, Redskins
35. Kerryon Johnson, Lions
36. Tevin Coleman, Falcons
37. Jamaal Williams, Packers
38. Marlon Mack, Colts
39. Sony Michel, Patriots
40. Devontae Booker, Broncos
41. Rex Burkhead, Patriots
42. D'Onta Foreman, Texans
43. Corey Clement, Eagles
44. Ty Montgomery, Packers
45. Dion Lewis, Titans
46. Chris Thompson, Redskins
47. Matt Breida, 49ers
PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200
Tier 6 is fairly similar to the above tier, but for whatever reason, these players just aren't quite as appealing. Chris Ivory would be the exception if LeSean McCoy is suspended, but until that happens, Ivory is a low-upside handcuff.
Even with that said, there are some interesting players here. Blount, Murray and even Gore could be TD vultures, and Riddick, Bernard, White, Cohen, Allen and possibly Powell could be big PPR leagues. Jones (once he's done serving his two-game suspension) could be starting early in the season considering that he has an unproven back penciled in ahead of them on the depth chart right now, and Chubb could be a rookie breakout if something happens to Carlos Hyde.
Just as with the above tier, you might not feel great about starting any of these guys in Week 1, but if you wait until this deep into the draft to grab your second starter (or possibly your flex), the receiving backs tend to be a little safer, even in standard leagues. You know they're going to give you something, where as someone like Martin might only have two carries for five yards. It's good to get at least one of these guys in the middle/late-middle rounds, whether it's your RB2 or RB5.
48. Theo Riddick, Lions
49. Giovani Bernard, Bengals
50. Chris Ivory, Bills
51. LeGarrette Blount, Lions
52. Frank Gore, Dolphins
53. James White, Patriots
54. Jordan Wilkins, Colts
55. Nick Chubb, Browns
56. Tarik Cohen, Bears
57. Buck Allen, Ravens
58. Aaron Jones, Packers
59. Latavius Murray, Vikings
60. Bilal Powell, Jets
61. Doug Martin, Raiders
2018 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200 | PPR
Fantasy Football 2018: Running back sleepers and handcuffs
Tier 7 is your grab bag of low-upside handcuffs, unproven/mediocre receiving backs, name-brand veterans we just can't quite let go of, and rookies who are no better than third on the depth chart. You can bet at least a couple of these guys will prove valuable at some point this season (we particularly like Hines and Ballage), but who, when, and for how long are all unanswerable questions in August.
You don't need to handcuff all of your RBs (or any, really), so you shouldn't have more than one of these guys (two at the most). If you're really into the whole "Zero-RB" thing, you might have more because you're just the ultimate vulture.
62. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars
63. Austin Ekeler, Chargers
64. Kenneth Dixon, Ravens
65. Elijah McGuire, Jets
66. Alfred Morris, 49ers
67. Adrian Peterson, Redskins
68. Wayne Gallman, Giants
69. Darren Sproles, Eagles
70. Nyheim Hines, Colts
71. Jonathan Williams, Saints
72. C.J. Prosise, Seahawks
73. Justin Jackson, Chargers
74. Jalen Richard, Raiders
75. Spencer Ware, Chiefs
76. Rod Smith, Cowboys
77. Robert Turbin, Colts
78. De'Angelo Henderson, Broncos
79. Kalen Ballage, Dolphins
80. DeAndre Washington, Raiders
81. James Conner, Steelers
82. Malcolm Brown, Rams
83. Elijhaa Penny, Cardinals
84. Jonathan Stewart, Giants
