Quarterback is the most important position on a real-life football team, and the impact of QBs can underestimated in fantasy football. While QB is probably the deepest position group in most fantasy leagues, that doesn’t mean that the elite signal-called can’t be important. Different fantasy players place different values on quarterbacks, and that's what leads many to adopting a specific draft strategy regarding the position. Whether QBs are high on your cheat sheet or you’re scouring the lower tiers of the fantasy football rankings to grab a potential sleeper, there is no right answer on how to deal with the position.
In most drafts, RBs and WRs fly off the board early, so teams are scrambling to grab them in the first two or three rounds. Usually, there are at least 15 or so players off the board at each position before a QB gets selected, but some fantasy players will surprise and grab an elite guy at the end of Round 2. And some bold players (or maybe insane) won’t pick a passer until Round 12 at the earliest.
There are so many strategies regarding the quarterback position, all which are tied to the different rankings tiers, so we break them down to help you fight the right QBs for your roster.
2018 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
Who are the best 2018 fantasy football quarterbacks?
There certainly is an opportunity cost to drafting a quarterback in the early rounds of any fantasy draft. Missing out on top-tier talent at running back and receiver can impact the depth of any squad, but sometimes it’s worth it just to get that consistent, Tier-1 quarterback at the top of your lineup.
While quarterbacks grow on trees in fantasy, elite-level players don’t. These quarterbacks are the guys that can throw for at least 300 yards and post three TDs regardless of the matchup, and that can be enough to get a team over the hump in most weeks.
If you draft a top-tier quarterback, you almost never have to work to find another. Barring an injury, which can happen to anyone, or ineffectiveness, which is significantly less likely, a Tier-1 quarterback will start every week except for their bye, even in tough matchups. This offers fantasy players more flexibility with their roster, as they can afford to hold onto just one quarterback and stash other depth pieces at RB, WR, and even TE.
It’s also worth noting that the players in this tier are very durable. Tom Brady hasn’t missed a game (due to injury) since he tore his ACL in 2008. Russell Wilson has never missed a start in six NFL seasons, which is amazing given his shoddy offensive line and propensity to scramble. Aaron Rodgers is arguably the most injury prone of the group, and even he has played in at least 15 games in eight-of-10 seasons as a starter. So, generally speaking, this group is consistently available as well as being the best scorers among QBs.
Drafting a quarterback early isn’t a necessity. But if they are the best player on the board or pose superior value at a draft slot in the first four or five rounds, it’s important to pull the trigger. It gives you at least one position on your roster that you don’t have to worry about, and that will give you more opportunities to pick up top RBs and WRs on the waiver wire.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
2018 Fantasy QB Rankings: Where are Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz?
Last season, both Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz had breakout years for their respective squads. Watson had an absurd 11.5 percent touchdown rate in the five starts that he made before tearing his ACL in practice. Wentz was well on his way to becoming the top fantasy quarterback before tearing his ACL against the Rams in Week 14. Are you seeing a pattern here?
If these two players didn’t come with injury concerns, it’s possible that they would have risen above Tier 2. They were that good last year, and both have a legitimate chance to become the No. 1 fantasy quarterback this season. However, the lack of a large sample size from Watson and the concerns about when Wentz will be ready is pushing them down respective draft boards. That could make them solid value picks.
In our Top 200, Watson and Wentz rank back-to-back at 60 and 61, respectively. That would put their draft position around the late-fifth/early-sixth round in a 12-team draft. If you’re a believer in either of them as the potential QB1 in fantasy, then that price should be considered a steal, and you could even select them a round earlier without being ridiculed (and if you are, there's a good chance you'll have the last laugh).
Had both Watson and Wentz stayed healthy, their draft range would likely be in the early 40s because of their respective all-around skill sets. With all that said, grabbing them a bit earlier than their projected ADPs could be sound draft strategy, as they have even more upside than the next tier of quarterbacks.
4. Deshaun Watson, Texans
5. Carson Wentz, Eagles
SLEEPERS:
8 QBs | 16 RBs | 19 WRs | 9 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team
2018 Fantasy QB Tiers: Tier 3
Excluding the top-five quarterbacks, there are still a multitude of high-quality options that fantasy owners can target. If you’re one of the people who hates the idea of drafting a quarterback before Round 7 and are content to load up on RB and WR early, these are the guys for you.
Tier 3 consists of some of the best fantasy starters over the course of the past few years and most are extremely dependable. They don’t have quite as much consistent upside as those in the tiers above, but they are still very good and could challenge for the No. 1 fantasy quarterback spot if all goes well.
The idea behind getting a starter at this juncture is that they are good enough to be elite, but they come at a lower cost because of the questions surrounding them. And sure, some of them do have a problems. Cam Newton has had consistency issues and only completed 58.5 percent of his passes last year, capping his upside with passing stats; Drew Brees threw the ball less last year than he had since 2009; and Marcus Mariota maintained a dreadful 13-to-15 TD/INT rate last season. Brees (39), Rivers (36), and Roethlisberger (36) are also all getting up there in age.
But for every question about these guys, there is a potential answer. Newton led quarterbacks in rushing yards (754) and tied for first in QB rushing TDs (6) last season. Brees is still a hyper-efficient option and has averaged 34 passing touchdowns per year since landing in New Orleans. And Mariota is enduring a coaching change that will see new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur greatly help him and put him in a more QB-friendly offense.
Any of these guys could break out and leap into the top tier for next year. Whether it’s entrusting former MVP Matt Ryan as your starter or targeting 2017’s leader in 300-yard passing games, Philip Rivers, one thing is certain: The value of these Round 7-9 players makes them well worth the investment.
If you can land one of these starters, it is important that you have a good backup just in case any of these guys have tough matchups during the season. For example, it’s probably better that you sit Mariota against the tough Jaguars front and throw a player with a good matchup into the fire (even if Mariota is clearly your QB1). Generally speaking, though, this tier of guys is good to start 75-100 percent of games depending on what their matchups.
6. Cam Newton, Panthers
7. Matthew Stafford, Lions
8. Drew Brees, Saints
9. Philip Rivers, Chargers
10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
11. Marcus Mariota, Titans
12. Matt Ryan, Falcons
PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200
2018 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Wait On A QB
Personally, I prefer this strategy instead of grabbing one of the top-12 guys. Tier 4 is loaded with plenty of talent. There are often sleepers at quarterback that respective fantasy players believe in, and they can often be had in the latter half of the draft. Grabbing a player in the 10th-to-12th rounds can work out, as they provide solid production at a fraction of the cost of the next tier up.
Of course, these players don’t come without their share of problems. Kirk Cousins is changing teams and tied for the second-most red-zone interceptions last season. Derek Carr is coming off one of his least productive seasons in his four-year NFL career. And Andrew Luck… well, who knows?
As many questions as there are, the fact is that these quarterbacks are still starters. They still have the necessary ability to produce multiple touchdowns every week, and some are in potent offenses (Goff and Cousins especially). Most of these players also have youth on their side and could be ready for a breakout season (or, in some cases, they could repeat a breakout season of previous years).
If you can live with a little inconsistency and unpredictability, waiting on a quarterback should be the draft strategy for you. It’s easy to find effective players, and even if you choose the wrong sleeper, you can still pick up players off the waiver wire to stream until you settle on an option that you like. That’s not an option with the elite quarterbacks, as if a guy struggles, you’re unlikely to turn away from him until it’s too late, given the huge investment made in him.
13. Dak Prescott, Cowboys
14. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
15. Jared Goff, Rams
16. Derek Carr, Raiders
17. Andrew Luck, Colts
18. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
19. Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs
DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST
Fantasy Football 2018: Deep QB Sleepers
If you’re going to go after a deep sleeper and hope that he turns into your starter, it’s important to consider a couple of factors. The first is what type of quarterback you are looking for. If you want a steady and consistently productive player from the group, odds are the Alex Smith is going to appeal to you. If you’re looking for a player with more upside in a revamped offensive system, Mitchell Trubisky should be your guy.
Relying on a deep sleeper as a starter is a major risk. The draft strategy of adding a lot of quality running back and receiver depth =can pan out, but given that the quarterback position produces the most points on a week-to-week basis, being unable to find a consistent producer and touchdown threat can make your fantasy team go from elite to average in mere moments.
If you are planning on trusting one of these guys as a starting option, it’s also important to look at the schedule early in the season, as matchups can really help to make these players effective. For example, Smith will be facing the weakest part of his season in the first two weeks against the Cardinals and the Colts, and then he will take on a young Packers unit that still has work to do in the back-seven. So, that could be an ideal time to start him for a few games and have a chance to win each week.
Still, these guys shouldn’t be counted on as the answer. Odds are that in a 12-team league, these guys will move around from team to team on the waiver wire as the season goes along. If one hits a hot streak or breaks out (we’re looking at you Trubisky), then you may strike gold. Otherwise, these Tier-5 guys are just backup and streaming options.
20. Alex Smith, Redskins
21. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
22. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
23. Eli Manning, Giants
24. Case Keenum, Broncos
More Fantasy Football Draft Tips
It’s also important to note that there are some other sleeper options not included on this list that should certainly be watched on the waiver wire. Namely, the rookie quarterbacks aren’t included on here because it’s uncertain which ones will be handed the starting job to begin the year. The Browns quarterback situation could be one that pays dividends, as Tyrod Taylor’s scrambling ability makes him a good streaming option as long as he can hold off Baker Mayfield for a starting spot.
Also, make sure you know your league settings. If you’re in a league that only awards four points for passing TDs and six for rushing TDs, some scramblers may provide extra value. That should give a bump to guys like Taylor, Trubisky, Cam Newton, and Marcus Mariota and could shift them up a tier.
Quarterbacks are often overlooked as make-or-break pieces on a fantasy team. If you have a solid one, you’re usually good. But if you end up with one of the scrubs, it can capsize your best efforts to field a competitive team.
