We often joke that pretty much every running back outside the top 20 can be considered a sleeper. For defense, you could really expand that to anyone outside the top five in the rankings. Favorable/unfavorable matchups put every D/ST theoretically in play in a given week, which makes your draft cheat sheet and all those full-season projections obsolete in a hurry.
Here's something we all know but don't always think about on draft day: You'll either drop your drafted defense at some point because of bye weeks or carry two defenses. And, really, you should be playing matchups fairly often anyway. There are very few "must-plays" when it comes to D/STs, unless you're talking about defenses playing the very worst teams.
Even the sleepers listed below are not the types of teams you can feel comfortable with all season long. These are matchup plays as much as anything, which means they might not even be worth drafting, especially when you factor in their early-season schedules. But they'll likely be more good than bad over the course of the season and should be on your radar. Perhaps combining them with the D/STs listed at the end of this article (favorable early-season schedules) is the way to go.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2018 fantasy football cheat sheet
2018 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Defense
Houston Texans
J.J. Watt is back, and that seems to be all people need to hear to have Houston back among the top fantasy D/STs after a dismal 2017. Of course, it's not just Watt who's returning, as DE Whitney Mercilus is also slated to return after a pec injury cost him all but five games last year. Houston also added DBs Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieu, both of whom should help improve on last year's 24th-ranked pass defense and disappointing 11 INTs. Houston is a major wild card, as Watt has only played in eight games the past two seasons, but if he can stay healthy, he's one of the biggest difference-makers in the league.
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee was a fairly average fantasy D/ST last year, but its 43 sacks tied for fifth most and it sported the No. 4 run defense. Malcolm Butler was added to a secondary that already features last year's INT co-leader Kevin Byard and emerging second-year playmaker Adoree' Jackson, and first-round pick Rashaan Evans will help beef up the linebacking corps. There's major breakout potential here if Tennessee can improve on its 12 INTs and one D/ST touchdown from last year, both of which seem likely.
2018 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200
Buffalo Bills
With only 27 sacks last season, the Bills D/ST lacked the consistent upside you want in a fantasy defense, but the acquisitions of DT Star Lotulelei and first-round LB Tremaine Edmunds should strengthen the defense as a whole and free up other players to make more big plays. Buffalo's three returning starters in the secondary each had at least four interceptions, and if newcomer Vontae Davis is healthy, Buffalo will have a legit chance to lead the league in INTs.
Arizona Cardinals
Talented pass-rushers Chandler Jones and Markus Golden and play-making corner Patrick Peterson give this disappointing unit upside in any game. While Arizona might not be an every-week play anymore, they certainly have the ability, especially at home, to put up fantasy points. The loss of safety Tyrann Mathieu from a unit that only had 21 takeaways last season doesn't help the overall outlook, but Arizona could be huge in favorable matchups.
PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200
Atlanta Falcons
Expect to see Vic Beasley unleashed this year after managed just five sacks in 2017 compared to 15.5 the year before. That alone will help offset the loss of Adrian Clayborn's 9.5 sacks (six of which came in one game). Third-year LB Deion Jones appears to only be getting better, which is big for a team that lacks big-time playmakers in the secondary. The talent is there, and if Atlanta can improve on its eight INTs from last season, it will be a valuable fantasy D/ST.
Washington Redskins
Washington ranked tied for seventh in sacks (42) last year and had a respectable (and repeatable) 16 INTs and seven fumble recoveries. The loss of Kendall Fuller takes away four of those INTs, but if Josh Norman can improve on his goose-egg in 2017, this secondary could still provide for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS:
8 QBs | 16 RBs | 19 WRs | 9 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team
Early-Season Fantasy Defense Sleepers
Perhaps the best route for finding defense sleepers is just trying to play matchups early in the season. The streaming life isn't for everyone, but if you have the patience and persistence to comb the waiver wire every week, you can usually find a decent number of points without exposing yourself to a bad matchup.
Of course, early in the season, we're not always sure what's a good matchup and what isn't. We can look at last year's stats, but that only tells us so much. With the movement/potential emergence of some QBs, there aren't many teams you can point to as no-brainer matchups. Teams like Indianapolis, Denver, San Francisco, Miami, and even Cleveland should all be better under center this year. We still recommend picking on rookie QBs, and until Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill prove they're 100 percent, we'll pick on them, too.
Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of great options for teams with what appear to be favorable matchups the first two or three weeks. A few of the teams with the best matchups will be drafted anyway (Saints, Eagles, Ravens, Steelers), but there are still a few teams who could surprise early (and then be dropped).
DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST
Cincinnati (@IND, vs. BAL), the Jets (@DET, vs. MIA, @CLE), New Orleans (vs. TB, vs. CLE), Washington (@ARI, vs. IND), Philadelphia (vs. ATL, @TB, vs. IND), Pittsburgh (@CLE, vs. KC, @TB), Tennessee (@MIA, vs. HOU, @JAC), Baltimore (vs. BUF, @CIN, vs. DEN) look good for at least two of the first three weeks.
The teams with the best projected matchups in Week 1 are Cincinnati (@IND), Washington (@ARI), Baltimore (vs. BUF), Detroit (vs. NYJ), Green Bay (vs. CHI), Jacksonville (@NYG), New Orleans (vs. TB), Tennessee (@MIA).
