Melbourne Demons v Geelong Cats: Preview, odds, teams and history for AFL first Elimination Final

Mick Stirling

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Melbourne Demons v Geelong Cats: Preview, odds, teams and history for AFL first Elimination Final image

PREVIEW OF MELBOURNE DEMONS V GEELONG CATS

In 2005 Geelong belted Melbourne by 57 points in an elimination final, but a year later the young Demons won in the first week of AFL finals as the Cats fell out of the eight and looked like a spent force.

In the 11 years since then Melbourne has had seven bottom-four finishes and hasn’t returned to September, while Geelong has been in the top-four eight times and won three flags.

That’s a big contrast in recent histories, but it means nothing this week.

More important are the two last-minute wins the Cats inflicted on the Dees this year, both of them painful and both will have left scars.

Can Melbourne overcome its hoodoo team at the most important of times, or have Max Gawn’s miss and ZachTuohy’s after-the-siren goal created a psychological hurdle too high to leap?

Whichever way it goes, the evidence would suggest Friday night’s elimination final will be a cracker.

WHAT TIME IS THE GAME ON?

The ball is hitting the MCG turf at 7.50pm AEST this Friday, September 7th.


 

HOW TO WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT’S AFL FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL

Channel Seven and Fox Footy (channel 504) both start their coverage from 7.30pm, giving us plenty of time to watch Gawn’s shank and Tuohy’s match winner at least a dozen times each

CAN I WATCH IT OVERSEAS?

There’s no doubt a fair few Melbourne fans thought it a good idea to be on the slopes in Switzerland or maybe Aspen to avoid the heartbreak that comes their way at this time of year, but don’t fret. I’m sure the game will be on the big screen in all the après ski bars, and if not just pull the little screen out of your flouro bib-and-braces, and flick on the game through either AFL Live Pass or the Foxtel app.

AND THE RADIO?

Yep, even the radio has apps. If you haven’t got one of the many available, such as SimpleRadio, then download it now.

MELBOURNE DEMONS’ LIKELY LINEUP

B: 14 Michael Hibberd, 17 Sam Frost,  39 Neville Jetta
HB: 3 Christian Salem, 28 Oscar McDonald, 6 Jordan Lewis
C: 30 Alex Neal-Bullen, 13 Clayton Oliver, 4 James Harmes
HF: 5 Christian Petracca, 18 Jake Melksham, 31 Bayley Fritsch
F: 36 Jeff Garlett, 25 Tom McDonald, 9 Charlie Spargo
R: 11 Max Gawn, 2 Nathan Jones, 10 Angus Brayshaw
Int: 7 Jack Viney, 22 Aaron vandenBerg, 21 Cameron Pederson, 24 Jay Kennedy Harris

WHAT’S IN THIS GAME FOR THE DEMONS?

Obviously it’s now-or-never for Melbourne, as the name ‘elimination final’ would suggest, but the results of the past couple of AFL finals series, especially the Bulldogs’ win in 2016, will have the Demons thinking they can go the whole way. On song, Melbourne can play sparkling football, but is it finals-ready? Get over Geelong and there’ll be little doubt the Dees can challenge for their first flag since 1964

KEY MELBOURNE PLAYERS

September sees football lift to another level of intensity – just the way a hard nut like Jack Viney likes it, and the co-captain comes back at just the right time. Players like Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw and Christian Petracca have got all the class in the world, but it will be Viney and Nathan Jones’ leadership that decides whether they can play at their best in the pressure-cooker on Friday night. 

GEELONG CATS’ LIKELY LINEUP

B: 2 Zach Tuohy, 7 Harry Taylor, 24 Jed Bews
HB: 44 Tom Stewart, 8 Jake Kolodjashnij, 38 Jack Henry
C: 11 Tim Kelly, 14 Joel Selwood, 16 Scott Selwood
HF: 27 Sam Menegola, 46 Mark Blicavs, 4 Gary Ablett
F: 3 Brandan Parfitt, 26 Tom Hawkins, 10 Daniel Menzel
R: 1 Rhys Stanley, 35 Patrick Dangerfield, 22 Mitch Duncan
Int:  19 Quinten Narkle, 37 Sam Simpson, 29 Cam Guthrie, 41 Jamaine Jones

WHAT’S IN THIS GAME FOR THE CATS?

Gary Ablett’s homecoming was supposed to be the missing piece in Geelong’s premiership puzzle, yet the Cats have gone backwards this year.

That doesn’t matter now though, they’ve got a place in the end-of-year action and it’s a whole new ball game – and if anyone knows how to play this ball game it’s Geelong. If they’re still there in week two of finals there’s going to be five very nervous clubs.

KEY GEELONG PLAYERS

The big stage is the playground of the stars, and this is what ‘Dangerwood’ was built for.

Ablett, Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood will crank it up to the max, turning the heat to a level the Melbourne midfield won’t have felt before.

And then there’s Tom Hawkins, who may have missed out on the Coleman Medal and an All Australian blazer, but has been the in-form key forward in the AFL through the back half of the season.

LAST FOUR MEETINGS

Rd 18, 2018, Geelong Cats 16.4 (100) d Melbourne Demons 14.14 (98) at GMHBA Stadium
Rd 1, 2018, Geelong Cats 14.13 (97) d Melbourne Demons 13.16 (94) at the MCG
Rd 3, 2017, Geelong Cats 20.6 (126) d Melbourne Demons 13.19 (97) at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23, 2016, Geelong Cats 24.11 (155) d Melbourne Demons 6.8 (44) at GMHBA Stadium

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Melbourne may not have the finals experience and are on a four-game losing streak against Geelong, but downing West Coast and GWS in their last two outings has the Dees starting as $1.74 favourites.

The Cats also had a couple of handy results in their past two matches, winning both by over 100 points, but the quality of the opposition didn’t count for much so they’re slight outsiders at $2.10.

WHO WILL WIN?

Melbourne is in form, they get Viney back and the game’s at home on the MCG, but Geelong is no stranger to the Home of Football, especially at this time of year, and has the superstars who know what to do in these circumstances. 

Geelong by 17 points.

Mick Stirling