The AFL's night of nights - the Brownlow Medal - is here and it's time to see where we should be putting our money.
While the actual award looks like it's going to be a tight race between Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli, there is plenty of value across the markets.
The Sporting News has crunched the numbers to provide a Brownlow Medal betting guide to you.
MORE: AFL Brownlow votes predictor: Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli tie for medal
Brownlow Medal best bets
Nick Daicos - Leader After Round 10
In the first 10 rounds. Daicos hit 40-plus disposals on three occasions and 30-plus four times.
With the Magpies winning nine of their first 10 games, there will be plenty of votes heading Daicos' way through this period.
Considering Daicos is expected to poll well early, he appears to be good value to take down this category.
Price: $1.72
- Kieran Francis
Nick Daicos - Leader After Round 15
Daicos is expected to get off to a flyer and should stop atop the count before his injury in Round 21.
Tipped by The Sporting News’ Brownlow Predictor to lead the count with 21 votes after 15 rounds, the young superstar is a sure bet for early votes markets.
Petracca (4.25) and Tim Taranto (4.50) could challenge the Magpie for the top spot after Round 15, but we’ll be backing Daicos.
Price: $1.80
- Bryn Wakefield
GWS Most Team Votes - Tom Green
All eyes will be on Toby Greene but some should be flipped toward breakout midfielder Tom Green.
While Toby has had a career best season, he only kicked five or more goals once, with his consistency a strong point.
Green has averaged a mammoth 32 disposals and will get plenty of Brownlow votes.
It's going to be a tight battle but Green represents value.
Price: $3.75
- Kieran Francis
Carlton Most Team Votes - Patrick Cripps
It’s going to be an interesting count in the Carlton camp, with Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow both having outstanding years.
On performance alone, the two-time Coleman medalist gets the nod. But on Brownlow Night, that’s not usually the case.
Last year, when Curnow led all scorers, he finished with 11 votes, Cripps, the eventual winner, tallied 29 votes for his efforts.
While it should be a closer count than last time, Cripps' odds look good.
Price: $1.85
- Bryn Wakefield
Brownlow top five - Errol Gulden
It's been a breakout season from Errol Gulden at Sydney, with the midfielder a certainty to win Sydney's best-and-fairest.
With not much competition for votes at the Swans, with Chad Warner expected to be the only possible significant stealer, Gulden has a good chance of featuring high in the count.
His impactful kicking and goals will certainly catch the eye of the umpires, as will the weight of possessions he collects.
Price: $2.75
- Kieran Francis
Lachie Neale Total Votes 27-plus
Lachie Neale is set to feature heavily in the Brownlow Medal proceedings once again, after a second-laced finish last year and a win in 2020.
The Sporting News’ Brownlow Predictor has Neale finishing with 28 votes, putting him equal 3rd in the projected count.
With so many impactful, stat-sheet-stuffing games under his belt, the Brisbane midfielder will no doubt poll well, and should clear the 27-plus mark.
Price: $2.00
- Bryn Wakefield
Brownlow top 20 - Tom Green
While his namesake Toby Greene is favourite to get most votes at GWS, Tom Green has had an extraordinary season to put himself among the best players in the competition.
Green's game is centered around winning contested possessions and his big frame is certainly noticeable as it crashes around the field.
The Giant should comfortably finish in the top 20 but you will have to wait for him to come home like a steam train.
Price: $1.67
- Kieran Francis
Collingwood to Poll the Most Votes
Collingwood finished the season with 18 wins, and the highest percentage of any team. They also have the most likely Brownlow Medal winner in Daicos.
That means that they’re also a great chance to lead all teams for total Brownlow votes when the celebrations are all said and done.
The teams with the most or equal-most wins have topped the count in three of the last five years, which puts the Magpies in good company.
Price: $1.75
- Bryn Wakefield
Brownlow Medal odds from Dabble
Brownlow Medal Winner
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | $2.85 |
| Nick Daicos | $2.85 |
| Zak Butters | $6.00 |
| Christian Petracca | $6.50 |
| Lachie Neale | $15.00 |
| Tim Taranto | $67.00 |
| Errol Gulden | $67.00 |
| Jordan Dawson | $81.00 |
| Connor Rozee | $81.00 |
| Toby Greene | $101.00 |
Odds correct as of Monday 4pm.
Brownlow Medal Predictor 2023
Top five favourites
| Votes | Player | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 30 | Nick Daicos | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - | - | 2 | - | 1 | 2 | - | - | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 30 | Marcus Bontempelli | - | - | 3 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 3 | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 2 |
| 28 | Christian Petracca | 2 | - | 2 | 3 | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | 1 | 3 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 3 | - | 1 | 2 | 1 | - | 2 |
| 28 | Lachie Neale | - | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 3 | 1 | - | - | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - | 1 | - | - | - | 3 | 2 |
| 27 | Zak Butters | - | - | - | - | 3 | 1 | - | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Brownlow Medal Contenders 2023
Nick Daicos
Estimated votes: 30
Daicos has produced a season like no other in the modern game. Projected to lead the Brownlow Medal count after 21 rounds, the midfielder will take some catching.
Even with an injury ending the 20-year-old's home and away season, the prospect of winning 'Charlie' isn't far-fetched.
Daicos began his season at half back, winning possessions with ease and setting up plays with his precise foot skills.
A shift into the midfield late in the campaign provided another spark of form, with the son of Collingwood great Peter Daicos expected to poll nine votes from rounds 16 to 19.
Other three-vote games could come from Anzac Day and big performances against Port Adelaide and St Kilda earlier in the year.
MORE: Nick Daicos contract: Collingwood superstar's deal length, salary
Marcus Bontempelli
Estimated votes: 30
Bontempelli finished Brownlow Medal runner-up with 33 votes in 2021, before dropping to a 10-vote tally last year.
In 2023, the 27-year-old has been back to his best form and could be the biggest chance to catch Daicos on Brownlow Medal night.
A number of dominant games will see Bontempelli polling best-on-ground votes, including a one-goal, 26-contested possession game against GWS in Round 8.
The Bulldog's classy ball use and ability to hit the goals pass the eye test, but outstanding years from midfield bull Tom Liberatore and ruckman Tim English could hurt his voting.
Still, with an enticing projected count and a three games in-hand to catch Daicos, Bontempelli is one to keep your eye on.
Christian Petracca
Estimated votes: 28
A Norm Smith Medallist and notorious big game player, Petracca could yet find himself atop the Brownlow Medal count this season.
His string of consistency over the last month has been what other outstanding years have sometimes lacked.
Only Richmond's Shai Bolton (31) kicked more goals as a midfielder-forward than Petracca (27) in the minor rounds, and the Demon's star has done so while averaging 13.9 contested possessions.
The 27-year-old has been able to shine without star teammate Clayton Oliver for much of the season, so will he continue to poll with greater midfield competition?
MORE: Clayton Oliver injury latest: Melbourne star set for AFL return
Lachie Neale
Estimated votes: 28
Lachie Neale will again feature in the nervous final rounds of Brownlow Medal Night, with the midfielder producing another excellent season.
The 2020 Brownlow Medallist has played a starring role in Brisbane's top-two campaign, averaging 27.4 disposals and 8.1 clearances across the home and away season.
Neale hasn't attracted the superstar hype of Daicos or Bontempelli, but has been a consistently great performer in a strong Lions midfield.
Teammates Josh Dunkley and Charlie Cameron should snag some votes, but the star onballer will have plenty of chances to vote in a 17-win season.
Zak Butters
Estimated votes: 27
While a genuine Brownlow Medal contender, Zak Butters has had a hot and cold season.
During much of Port Adelaide's 13-game win streak, the crafty midfielder was taking games apart with his toughness and impressive game-sense.
After the bye, the 22-year-old seemed to be slowed by a groin injury. A strong finish to the season, however, has rocketed Butters back into the Brownlow Medal conversation.
He, along with good mate Connor Rozee, is set to poll highly on the night, with several three-votes games to come during a mid-season hot streak.
MORE: AFL Coaches Association Votes Leaderboard: Zak Butters set sights on top spot
Other Brownlow Contenders
Plenty of AFL players have enjoyed standout seasons, which could be rewarded come Brownlow Medal night.
Richmond's Tim Taranto has dominated in the midfield throughout the season, and has been able to hit the scoreboard, too. An underwhelming Tigers campaign could, however, derail a Brownlow charge.
Adelaide captain Jordan Dawson will also poll highly, having enjoyed the switch from half back to midfield star.
