The AFL top eight is yet to be locked in stone with the final home-and-away round of matches to come this weekend.
All positions in the eight can still change, while two teams could climb from outside and play finals?
Who will clinch the last finals berth? Will Collingwood hold on to top spot?
The Sporting News looks at the AFL top eight equation.
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AFL top eight race explained
1st: Collingwood - 17 wins, 5 losses, 123.2%
Round 24 fixture: Essendon (MCG), Friday night, 7:50pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 1st
Lowest possible finish: 3rd
A win for the Magpies on Friday night against struggling Essendon will secure top position.
But a defeat will open the door for Brisbane to steal in, if the Lions manage to defeat St Kilda at the Gabba, a home venue they haven't been beaten at all season.
Mathematically, Collingwood could finish third below Port Adelaide as well but it would likely require them to get thrashed by Essendon, and the Power to belt Richmond in Adelaide, with 100-plus point results likely needed on both matches for the equation.
Predicted finish: 1st
2nd: Brisbane - 16 wins, 6 losses, 123.2%
Round 24 fixture: St Kilda (Gabba), Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 1st
Lowest possible finish: 4th
The Lions will know if they can finish in top position by Saturday as Collingwood play Essendon on Friday night.
Brisbane hasn't lost at the Gabba all season so they will be strong favourites to beat St Kilda.
A win will at least secure second spot, with Port Adelaide needing a ridiculously large victory against Richmond to make up the 12 percentage points difference.
Fourth-placed Melbourne is the danger if the Lions lose, as their percentage is actually greater than the Lions.
Predicted finish: 2nd
3rd: Port Adelaide - 16 wins, 6 losses, 111.5%
Round 24 fixture: Richmond (Adelaide Oval), Sunday, 12:30pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 1st
Lowest possible finish: 4th
The Power have slowed after winning 13 games in a row through the early-to-middle part of the season.
They can technically finish on top, but would need to make up a ridiculous amount of percentage points on Collingwood and Brisbane, and hope both teams lose.
The Lions haven't lost at the Gabba all season so it's going to make it tough for the Power to even leapfrog into second.
Realistically, they should secure a third-place finish with a comfortable win against Richmond at home.
A loss to the Tigers will mean Melbourne will finish third with a win against Sydney, pushing the Power to fourth.
Predicted finish: 3rd
4th: Melbourne - 15 wins, 7 losses, 124.8%
Round 24 fixture: Sydney (SCG), Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 2nd
Lowest possible finish: 4th
With the Power and Brisbane likely to win, and the fact fifth-placed Carlton can't catch them, Melbourne are likely to finish in fourth position.
A second-placed finish would require the Lions to lose at home to St Kilda and the Power to slip up against Richmond, with the Demons needing to beat Sydney at the SCG.
They could finish in third, if one of the teams above them slips and they get the job done against the Swans.
Predicted finish: 4th
5th: Carlton - 13 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 116.1%
Round 24 fixture: GWS (Marvel Stadium), Sunday, 6:10pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: 7th
The Blues have won nine games in a row and are primed for a big finals series.
While they can't go higher than fifth, a win against GWS will lock in this position and a home elimination final.
A defeat could see them drop as low as seventh, depending on whether the Saints can upset the Lions, and Swans knock off Melbourne.
Predicted finish: 5th
6th: St Kilda - 13 wins, 9 losses, 108.9%
Round 24 fixture: Brisbane (Gabba), Saturday, 4:35pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: 8th
The Saints could finish as high as fifth with a win at the Gabba against Brisbane and a Carlton defeat.
But the Lions haven't been beaten at home all season, so that will be a tough ask.
Whether the Saints finish sixth or seventh will likely come down to whether Sydney leapfrog them by beating Melbourne at the SCG.
Predicted finish: 7th
7th: Sydney - 12 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw, 111.6%
Round 24 fixture: Melbourne (SCG), Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: 8th
A win against Melbourne could see the Swans jump the Saints into sixth and secure a home final.
It's going to be tough for St Kilda to knock off the Lions, who haven't lost at the Gabba all season.
The Swans could finish as low as eight if they lose to Melbourne and the Giants defeat Carlton.
Predicted finish: 6th
8th: GWS - 12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw, 105.6%
Round 24 fixture: Carlton (Marvel Stadium), Sunday, 6:10pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 6th
Lowest possible finish: 10th
The Giants are clinging on the last spot in the finals and might need to defeat Carlton at Marvel in the last match of the round.
In GWS' favour is that the struggling Bulldogs have to travel to Geelong and win to have any hope of making the finals.
An ideal result for the Giants is a Bulldogs defeat will make their match against Carlton a dead rubber for the team.
Essendon is mathematically able to jump the Giants as well but they would need to make up 13 percentage points, which is not realistic.
Predicted finish: 8th
9th: Western Bulldogs - 11 wins, 11 losses, 107.6%
Round 24 fixture: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium), Saturday, 7:25pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 6th
Lowest possible finish: 10th
Losses to Hawthorn and West Coast have taken the Bulldogs finals hopes out of their own hands.
They need to defeat Geelong at GMHBA Stadium and rely on GWS losing to Carlton to make finals.
Let's face it - a win against the Cats in Geelong is not easy when you have just lost to West Coast in Melbourne.
Predicted finish: 9th
10th: Essendon - 11 wins, 11 losses, 92.7%
Round 24 fixture: Collingwood (MCG), Friday night, 7:50pm (AEST)
Highest possible finish: 6th
Lowest possible finish: 10th
Mathematically a chance but not a realistic one.
Would need to beat Collingwood, see GWS and Bulldogs lose, plus make up a huge amount of percentage.
The wait to win a final will go on for at least 12 more months.
Predicted finish: 10th
AFL 2023 top eight ladder prediction
| Place | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood |
| 2 | Brisbane |
| 3 | Port Adelaide |
| 4 | Melbourne |
| 5 | Carlton |
| 6 | Sydney |
| 7 | St Kilda |
| 8 | GWS |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs |
| 10 | Essendon |
