AFL run home: Who makes finals? And what will the top four look like?

Aidan Cellini

AFL run home: Who makes finals? And what will the top four look like? image

The completion of round 22 saw majority of the favourites win, despite facing some scares.

Geelong secured their 15th minor premiership and could rest some of their stars for the clash against West Coast.

Carlton's finals chances hang in the balance and the match up with arch rivals Collingwood will determine if they are to return to September.

Melbourne put themselves right into the mix for a top two finish but face Brisbane at the Gabba on Friday night.

Sydney are expected to secure a double chance, facing St Kilda in the last game of the home-and-away season.

The Saints will need to cause the upset of the season if they are to play finals while the Western Bulldogs need to defeat Hawthorn to have any chance this year.

Fremantle are also a chance to finish top four but require some results to go their way.

Here's the run home:

1. Geelong

68 points (17-4 - 139.7 per cent)

Geelong's 12th straight victory has locked up top spot, with the club two games clear of the Swans.

Facing West Coast at home, the Cats can take it easy this week and ensure their stars are primed for a big finals series.

Unsure of who they'll face in the first week, it is almost certain that Geelong will host their opponent at the MCG due to their home ground (GMHBA Stadium) being under construction.

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2. Sydney

60 points (15-6 - 128.3 per cent)

Sydney have jumped up into second spot, following a strong win over Collingwood and extending their winning streak to six.

The Swans, behind Geelong, have been the most in-form team in the competition over the past two months and will be given a chance to go all the way in 2022.

Facing St Kilda in the last round, John Longmire's men are expected to get a home Qualifying Final and will be a difficult task at home, boasting a strong record (9-2).

3. Melbourne

60 points (15-6 - 127.7 per cent)

Melbourne managed to break the hearts of Carlton fans, scoring a goal with seconds remaining and stealing the four points.

Right in the mix for top four, the Demons now travel to the Gabba to take on Brisbane, who didn't look like their best against the Saints.

Despite not having their best year, the reigning premiers have put themselves into a position to contend for the premiership.

Don't rule them out, we saw what they did in the last four weeks in 2021.

4. Brisbane

60 points (15-6 - 124.1 per cent)

Brisbane managed to scrap through against the Saints, despite looking like losing for a period late in the final term.

The Lions have continued to tick over the wins and currently sit fourth but will have to win against the Demons to secure a double chance.

Playing at home, Chris Fagan's men will start as favourites but not by much, with this Friday night clash being arguably the most significant of the season.

Rhys Mathieson - Brisbane
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5. Collingwood

60 points (15-6 - 104.4 per cent)

Collingwood's winning streak comes to an end, as the Swans were too strong for Craig McRae's men.

The Pies, who were second at the end of round 21, now sit fifth and could fall as low as sixth with a match against Carlton proving to be pivotal to their chances.

With plenty of ramifications coming from Sunday afternoon's clash, this game will help settle where each club will finish.

Collingwood win, they finish top four.

Lose and could face Richmond in an elimination final.

6. Fremantle

58 points (14-6-1 - 116.4 per cent)

Fremantle remain in touch with the top four, taking care of West Coast in Derby 55.

The Dockers extend their win streak to two and look to make it three against GWS on Saturday.

With the Dees and Lions facing off, a spot will open up in the four but a hungry Collingwood will also be vying for that position.

Plenty to play out and will have to wait until late Sunday evening.

7. Richmond

50 points (12-8-1 - 118.7 per cent)

Richmond's third consecutive win against Hawthorn has secured them a finals berth, returning since their 2020 glory.

Locked in to finish seventh or eighth, the Tigers face Essendon on Saturday and have a total of five potential opponents for the elimination final in three weeks time.

Seen as a danger side come September, Damien Hardwick's men are peaking at the right time and they know how to make some waves in the final four weeks.

Expect them to be big players.

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8. Carlton

48 points (12-9 - 108.8 per cent)

Carlton fell agonisingly short to Melbourne on Saturday night, falling by five points to the reigning premiers.

However, they still remain in the hunt for a finals campaign but a grim task against arch rivals Collingwood is set to take place on Sunday afternoon.

With Western Bulldogs and St Kilda sitting a game behind and some percentage, the Blues still have the possibility of making the finals without winning but it seems unlikely.

The Dogs are 1.1 per cent behind Carlton which means the Blues will need to throw everything at the Pies and hope they get the desired result.

9. Western Bulldogs

44 points (11-10 - 107.9 per cent)

Western Bulldogs did their job and beat GWS, keeping their finals hopes alive.

They now take on Hawthorn, in a game their expected to win, putting pressure on Carlton.

However, they rely on the Blues losing to Collingwood.

First things first, beat Hawthorn.

If it's meant to be, it'll be.

10. St Kilda

44 points (11-10 - 100.1 per cent)

St Kilda shot themselves and their 2022 finals chances in the foot on Friday night, losing to Brisbane due to inaccurate kicking in front of goal.

Max King - who kicked five behinds - and the Saints were on top of the Lions in the second half but couldn't capitalise when it mattered most.

With hope all but gone, Brett Ratten's men need a miracle to happen on Sunday afternoon, praying the Dogs and Carlton lose and lose big whilst also defeating Sydney by a hefty margin.

Safe to say there'll be a few extra weeks of holidaying for the Saints side.

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Predicted 2022 AFL Ladder 

Team Current Position Predicted Finish
Geelong 1st 1st
Sydney 2nd 2nd
Melbourne 3rd 3rd
Collingwood 5th 4th
Fremantle 6th 5th
Brisbane 4th 6th
Richmond 7th 7th
Western Bulldogs 9th 8th
Carlton 8th 9th
St Kilda 10th 10th
Port Adelaide 11th 11th
Gold Coast 11th 12th
Hawthorn 13th 13th
Adelaide 14th 14th
Essendon 15th 15th
GWS 16th 16th
West Coast 17th 17th
North Melbourne 18th 18th

More: Want more AFL? Watch Warriors On The Field celebrating Aboriginal Australia and its long history and association with the AFL. Streaming on AMAZON PRIME VIDEO 

Aidan Cellini

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Aidan has surrounded himself with all types of sport, but resonates most with AFL and basketball as he still plays both competitively. He loves being active and enjoys sharing sporting moments with friends and family.

In his spare time, Aidan likes to read biographies as well as keep active and healthy. He's also a big fan of Matthew McConaughey and Marvel movies.