AFL Round 23 Betting Predictions: Carlton to make the eight, while Melbourne finish top four

Aidan Cellini

AFL Round 23 Betting Predictions: Carlton to make the eight, while Melbourne finish top four  image

Round 23 will kick off with a top four clash between Brisbane and Melbourne at the Gabba.

With a double chance on the line, the winner will secure a qualifying Final while the loser will have to wait until Sunday to see where they finish.

Saturday's matches won't necessarily have any repercussions if things go as expected, with Fremantle tipped to take care of GWS.

While Richmond are strong favourites to continue their win streak against Essendon on Saturday night.

Sunday is kicked off with a clash between Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs, with the latter fighting for a spot in the eight.

The Dogs need to make sure they win by at least two goals to give them any chance to replace Carlton in the finals.

However, they require Collingwood to defeat the Blues in the following game by the same margin.

Depending on results, the St Kilda and Sydney game could be moot but both sides are still playing for plenty.

The Swans need to win to secure a home qualifying Final or face travelling to the MCG or the Gabba in the first week.

While the Saints need to beat Sydney by near 100 points and need Carlton to be smashed by Collingwood. 

Here at The Sporting News, we've put together our betting predictions for round 23:

Odds courtesy of TAB.

Last week, we scored four of our nine predictions.

Lachie Neale didn't hit 30 disposals, Aaron Naughton and Shai Bolton was kept to one goal, Rory Lobb goalless and Port Adelaide won.

Brisbane (4th) vs Melbourne (3rd)

This match is a mini preview of what fans should expect to see in the finals, with plenty riding on each game.

Brisbane and Melbourne do battle at the Gabba in a tussle for a spot in the top four, with the loser likely to fall out by the end of the round.

The Lions are early favourites but not by much, while the Demons will come into this game with relative confidence, having beaten Chris Fagan's men earlier in the year and winning their past three encounters.

With stars on every line, it'll be a match against the best offence versus the best defence.

Despite the home ground advantage, history says that defence usually prevails.

Melbourne to win - $2.10

GWS Giants (16th) vs Fremantle (6th)

Played at Manuka Oval, Fremantle are heavily tipped to win against the Giants and push themselves into top four contention.

GWS almost pulled off an upset last week but ultimately fell short against the Bulldogs by five points.

Will Brodie has put his hand up for the trade steal of the year, being an impactful midfielder and allowing David Mundy and Nat Fyfe to be deployed elsewhere.

Averaging 27 touches, Brodie has been excellent for the Dockers and will have another big game against the Giants.

Will Brodie 25+ disposals - $1.50

Will Brodie Fremantle

North Melbourne (18th) vs Gold Coast (12th)

Gold Coast will want to end their season on a high, with a strong win against a struggling North Melbourne outfit.

The Kangaroos has lost four on the trot since their heart-warming win against Richmond in July.

The Suns will be disappointed how the season ended and were well within the mix of finals a month ago but have managed only one win in their past five.

Mabior Chol and Levi Casboult have been some of the recruits of the year, with the duo combining for 78 goals in 2022.

Chol, whose only been kept goalless twice this year, will be expected to bounce back out of his form slump.

The former Tiger was quiet the last time these teams met but will be preparing for a big game.

Mabior Chol 3+ goals - $2.0

Geelong (1st) vs West Coast (17th)

Geelong last week secured the minor premiership and a win against West Coast won't change their position on the ladder.

Chris Scott could opt to rest some players to make sure their primed for the first week of the finals.

The Eagles' season has gone from bad to worse, struck down by a long list of injuries and ongoing COVID-19 complications.

In the absence of Jeremy Cameron (hamstring), Tom Hawkins will become the number one target inside the forward 50 and is still within a chance of stealing the Coleman Medal from Charlie Curnow.

Needing eight goals, the Cats could look for their superstar although will have to work around All-Australian smoky Tom Barrass.

Tom Hawkins 3+ goals - $1.80

Essendon (15th) vs Richmond (7th)

Richmond locked away a finals berth last week following a big win against Hawthorn, led by Tom Lynch's eight goals.

Essendon and Ben Rutten have been in the media for all the wrong reasons, following an 84-point loss to Port Adelaide but also the speculation that Alastair Clarkson could be appointed senior coach in 2023.

The Tigers have won their past three encounters, including the last two by over five goals and will go into this game looking to extend their winning streak to four.

The Bombers will need to put aside the outside noise and attempt to finish the year off strong but aren't tipped to go well against Damien Hardwick's men.

Tom Lynch 3+ goals - $1.25

Tom Lynch - Richmond
Getty Images

Port Adelaide (11th) vs Adelaide (14th)

The second Showdown of 2022 has plenty to play for, despite either side not playing finals.

Port Adelaide legend Robbie Gray has announced his retirement and will play his last game against Adelaide.

The Crows, who won in round three with a goal after the siren, will hope they could replicate that result and claim bragging rights in South Australia.

Matthew Nicks' side have been in relatively impressive form, winning their past three including a match against Carlton.

Since 1997, the Power sit one win ahead of the Crows in the 51 Showdowns since but it could all be squared up on Saturday night.

Port Adelaide to win - $1.3

Hawthorn (13th) vs Western Bulldogs (10th)

Not much more needs to be said for the importance of this game for the Western Bulldogs, who need to win and win comfortably against Hawthorn to give themselves any chance for finals in 2022.

However, the Hawks have been strong in their past five weeks minus the game against Richmond and would be keen to spoil the Dogs' finals hopes at UTAS Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Luke Beveridge's men took home the chocolates earlier in the year and will need to replicate the 42-point margin.

Bailey Smith has been excellent in 2022 despite some suspensions sidelining him for periods of the year.

Averaging 30 possessions a game, Smith will need to be at his hard-running best to ensure the Dogs are in with a shot.

Bailey Smith 30+ disposals - $2.30

Carlton (8th) vs Collingwood (5th)

If this game was round one or five, the aura surrounding it would still be huge, with the two biggest clubs with plenty of history set to do battle at the MCG.

However, an extra layer of intrigue has been added to this game: the potential of finals football.

This game has been circled in everyone's calendars since half way through the year, with the ramifications of the result determining where each club finish.

Collingwood is vying for a top four spot. Carlton hoping to remain in the eight after round 23.

Betting companies cannot split the two sides, with TAB putting both at $1.92 each to win.

This is the game you dream of playing in. 90,000 plus fans and everything on the line.

We will see who stands up when it matters most.

Carlton to win - $1.92

St Kilda (9th) vs Sydney (2nd)

This game still has relevance, despite the final eight being decided before its completion.

Sydney will still be in the hunt for a top two finish, with a win most likely locking away a home qualifying Final.

However, a loss could result in a removal from the top four, if results don't go their way, but they have the luxury of knowing what's required before the match starts.

St Kilda's season is all but over, sitting a game behind Carlton and eight per cent.

The only way they'll make it is if Carlton lose by a considerable margin as well as the Bulldogs to lose to Hawthorn.

It would open the door for the Saints to jump the Blues, but would need to win by a staggering margin against one of the best defensive sides in the competition.

Seems unlikely.

Sydney Line -18.5 - $1.90

Sydney.jpg
Getty Images

More: Want more AFL? Watch Warriors On The Field celebrating Aboriginal Australia and its long history and association with the AFL. Streaming on AMAZON PRIME VIDEO

Aidan Cellini

Aidan Cellini Photo

Aidan has surrounded himself with all types of sport, but resonates most with AFL and basketball as he still plays both competitively. He loves being active and enjoys sharing sporting moments with friends and family.

In his spare time, Aidan likes to read biographies as well as keep active and healthy. He's also a big fan of Matthew McConaughey and Marvel movies.