AFL Round 14 Betting Tips: Tom Papley and Port Adelaide providing value

Kieran Francis

AFL Round 14 Betting Tips: Tom Papley and Port Adelaide providing value image

Another bye weekend sees six AFL games in action with blockbusters occurring on Thursday, Friday and Saturday night.

Can Port Adelaide win 11 games in a row when they host Geelong at Adelaide Oval?

Are a misfiring Sydney any hope of upsetting a disappointing Brisbane?

Which of Richmond and St Kilda will back-up last week's impressive interstate wins?

The Sporting News gives you the best betting tips for Round 14.

Odds courtesy of Bluebet.

Last week, we scored four of our eight predictions.

We had a great start to snare the first four bets, but upsets from Richmond and Collingwood, plus blowouts in other games, saw the ledger end up even for the weekend.

MORE: AFL Injury List 2023: Superstars close in on return

Port Adelaide (2nd) vs Geelong (9th) best bet

Port Adelaide are on a club record 10 consecutive wins and are unlikely to be stopped by Geelong at Adelaide Oval.

The Cats did arrest their slide with a hard-fought win against the Bulldogs last week, but it wasn't a particularly impressive performance.

A young, dynamic midfield at the Power directly contrasts with the experienced, one-paced midfield at Geelong.

The Cats of last season would be a chance but at their current form, the Power should cover the line at home.

Port Adelaide -11.5 points  - $1.90

Brisbane (4th) vs Sydney (13th) best bet

Both teams aren't in particularly good form of late but the Lions are always tough to beat at home.

It's pretty difficult to see a Swans team, that lost at the SCG to St Kilda last week, doing enough to get the job done.

The line for the match is fairly high - especially when Sydney can make a match a scrap - so we will avoid that market.

With Sydney's talls struggling at the moment, expect Papley to be the most dangerous forward for Sydney and we like $1.85 for two-plus goals.

Tom Papley 2+ goals - $1.85

GWS (14th) vs Fremantle (10th) best bet

Tough game to read with the Giants performing inconsistently from week-to-week and Fremantle showing their improvement might be false after a loss at home to Richmond.

Surprisingly, odds are dead even head-to-head for the game, with the bookies believing GWS' home ground advantage counts for something.

However, in two of the last four matches, the Dockers secured great wins on the road against Melbourne (MCG) and Sydney (SCG).

Back the Dockers to win.

Fremantle to win - $1.90

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Richmond (12th) vs St Kilda (5th) best bet

After their stirring win against Fremantle in the west, the Tigers have assumed match favouritism despite the Saints beating Sydney at the SCG.

The MCG will definitely suit the Tigers, with the Saints rarely playing at the venue in recent times.

It should be a close game not matter who wins, so we like either team under 24.5 points.

Triple Margin II - Any Other Result (both teams to win by under 24.5 points) - $1.76

Carlton (10th) vs Gold Coast (13th) best bet

A rare trip for the Gold Coast Suns to the MCG to face a struggling Carlton.

The Suns have won two of their past three matches against finals contenders Adelaide and Western Bulldogs.

Carlton have plummeted to 15th on the ladder after six consecutive defeats.

However, Gold Coast don't play the MCG that well and surely the Blues have to put together a winning score?

Carlton at the line seems a decent bet.

Carlton -4.5 points - $1.90

North Melbourne (17th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) best bet

In the final game of the round, the Bulldogs will be hoping for an easy kill against North Melbourne.

The Kangas have played Marvel well in recent weeks, getting close to wins over Sydney and Essendon, and performing admirably against Collingwood.

With the line at -30.5 and the Bulldogs not playing particularly well, we'll back North to squeeze underneath it.

North Melbourne -30.5 points - $1.90

Kieran Francis

Kieran Francis Photo

Kieran Francis is a senior editor at The Sporting News based in Melbourne, Australia. He started at Sportal.com.au before being a part of the transition to Sporting News in 2015. Just prior to the 2018 World Cup, he was appointed chief editor of Goal.com in Australia. He has now returned to The Sporting News where his passions lay in football, AFL, poker and cricket - when he is not on holiday.