The race for finals action is heating up, with ten clubs locked in a battle for a top-eight spot.
For some clubs, the run home will be more difficult than others, with rivalries, top-four opponents and tough away fixtures to come — how does your team fare?
The Sporting News has every finals-aspiring team's run home and projected finish.
Jump to: Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, GWS, Geelong, Carlton, Richmond, Essendon, Sydney, Adelaide, Gold Coast
Jump: AFL Ladder Prediction
1. Collingwood (16 wins, two losses - 139 per cent)
Collingwood has managed only two losses this year — against top-four-hopefuls Brisbane and Melbourne. A win against Port Adelaide last week solidified the Magpies as the team to beat. Now two wins ahead of the Power, it would take three losses in five games to make a drop into second possible. A minor premiership and home final beckon.
Collingwood's run home
Round 20: Carlton at MCG
Round 21: Hawthorn at MCG
Round 22: Geelong at MCG
Round 23: Brisbane at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Essendon at MCG
Projected finish - 1st
Wins: Hawthorn, Essendon
Possible wins: Carlton, Geelong, Brisbane
MORE: AFL Coleman Medal Leaderboard
2. Port Adelaide (14 wins, four losses - 113.7 per cent)
Port Adelaide sits just one win above Brisbane on the ladder, and with a showdown against Adelaide and a clash with Geelong at GMHBA Stadium looming, that spot could be vulnerable. Despite the loss to Collingwood, the Power appeared back to their best last week and should win four of its last five games to finish second.
Port Adelaide's run home:
Round 20: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: GWS at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 24: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Projected finish - 2nd
Wins: GWS, Fremantle, Richmond
Possible wins: Adelaide, Geelong
MORE: Willie Rioli racism: Collingwood slam messages sent to Port Adelaide forward
3. Brisbane (13 wins, five losses - 130 per cent)
Brisbane's sparkling form (9-0) at the Gabba this season makes a top-two spot all the more valuable. But, it could take five wins from five to get it done. A matchup with Collingwood at Marvel Stadium is the biggest roadblock, with rivals Gold Coast keen for an upset win in Round 20. Clashes with Adelaide and St Kilda at the Gabba shouldn't be a problem for Brisbane.
Brisbane's run home
Round 20: Gold Coast at Heritage Bank Stadium
Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 22: Adelaide at Gabba
Round 23: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: St Kilda at Gabba
Projected finish - 3rd
Wins: Fremantle, Adelaide, St Kilda
Possible wins: Gold Coast, Collingwood
MORE: Will Ashcroft injury: Brisbane's Rising Star favourite suffers season-ending knee injury
4. Melbourne (12 wins, six losses - 123.7 per cent)
Melbourne's toughest fixture comes in the form of Carlton in Round 22. While it could be a dangerous game for the Demons, a two-win gap between fourth and fifth on the ladder should be enough. Sydney in the final round may well be a dead rubber, as the side prepares to face Collingwood in a qualifying final.
Melbourne's run home
Round 20: Richmond at MCG
Round 21: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena
Round 22: Carlton at MCG
Round 23: Hawthorn at MCG
Round 24: Sydney at SCG
Projected finish - 4th
Wins: Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Sydney
Possible wins: Richmond, Carlton
MORE: Brodie Grundy VFL updates: Dropped Melbourne ruckman struggles once again for Casey Demons
5. Western Bulldogs (ten wins, eight losses - 106.4 per cent)
The Western Bulldogs have been a mainstay in the top eight throughout the season, but are still a chance to fall in the final month. Clashes with Hawthorn and West Coast offer some respite, with three mid-table fixtures to come. The finals race could come down to a Round 24 battle with Geelong, should the Bulldogs lose to GWS and Richmond.
Western Bulldogs' run home
Round 20: GWS at Mars Stadium
Round 21: Richmond at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Hawthorn at University of Tasmania Stadium
Round 23: West Coast at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Projected finish - 6th
Wins: Hawthorn, West Coast
Possible wins: GWS, Richmond
Losses: Geelong
MORE: Bailey Smith caught up in Geelong trade rumours
6. St Kilda (ten wins, eight losses - 104.7 per cent)
St Kilda's recent form will worry fans, with the club narrowly escaping a loss to 17th-placed North Melbourne last round. The Saints won't have an easy run home, either. Carlton, Geelong and Brisbane await, while Richmond and Hawthorn games should become Saints wins. On current form, though, St Kilda are vulnerable to an upset.
St Kilda's run home
Round 20: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Brisbane at Gabba
Projected finish - 9th
Wins: Hawthorn
Possible wins: Carlton, Richmond
Losses: Geelong, Brisbane
7. GWS (ten wins, eight losses - 102.22 per cent)
GWS are riding a six-game win streak and based on form, should be a lock for finals. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work that way. Tough matchups against the Western Bulldogs, rivals Sydney, and Port Adelaide follow. Should the Giants continue their blistering form, they could take some impressive victories and do damage in the finals.
GWS' run home
Round 20: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium
Round 21: Sydney at GIANTS Stadium
Round 22: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Essendon at GIANTS Stadium
Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Projected finish - 8th
Wins: Essendon
Possible wins: Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Carlton
Losses: Port Adelaide
MORE: AFL Rising Star 2023
8. Geelong (nine wins, eight losses, one draw - 121 per cent
Geelong's percentage indicates this side is better than where it's currently placed. Yet, much like GWS, form and potential count for nothing when you're teetering on the edge of finals. Matchups with Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs remain, with Fremantle and St Kilda also to come. If the Cats do make the finals, watch out.
Geelong's run home
Round 20: Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium
Round 21: Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Collingwood at MCG
Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium
Projected finish - 5th
Wins: Fremantle, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
Possible wins: Port Adelaide, Collingwood
9. Carlton (nine wins, eight losses, one draw - 116.1 per cent)
Carlton has won five straight games by over 50 points. It's an unprecedented run of form, which leaves the Blues just one win outside the top eight. Friday's clash with Collingwood looms large, while matchups with Melbourne and GWS also excite. It will be another nail-biting finish to the season for Carlton fans.
Carlton's run home
Round 20: Collingwood at MCG
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Melbourne at MCG
Round 23: Gold Coast at Heritage Bank Stadium
Round 24: GWS at Marvel Stadium
Projected finish - 7th
Wins: St Kilda, Gold Coast
Possible wins: Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS
MORE: Carlton's rise to AFL finals contention: Why the Blues are winning again
10. Richmond (nine wins, eight losses, one draw - 99.9 per cent)
Richmond kept its season alive with a comeback win over Hawthorn, but will still face a tough run home. Melbourne is up next, with the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide also to come. The Tigers will need to beat St Kilda and North Melbourne, while taking an upset over one of their tougher matchups.
Richmond's run home
Round 20: Melbourne at MCG
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Projected finish - 10th
Wins: North Melbourne
Possible wins: Western Bulldogs, St Kilda
Losses: Melbourne, Port Adelaide
MORE: Who will replace Damien Hardwick? Ranking potential options for next Richmond coach
11. Essendon (nine wins, nine losses - 98.4 per cent)
Two big losses to Geelong and the Western Bulldogs leave Essendon in a difficult position. The Bombers have an easier fixture than some of their fellow midtable teams, but a clash with Collingwood in Round 24 spells trouble. Essendon may need to win its next four to find a top-eight spot, with GWS the most challenging fixture in sight.
Essendon's run home
Round 20: Sydney at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: West Coast at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: GWS at GIANTS Stadium
Round 24: Collingwood at MCG
Projected finish - 12th
Wins: North Melbourne, West Coast
Possible wins: Sydney
Losses: GWS, Collingwood
12. Sydney (eight wins, nine losses, one draw - 111.8 per cent)
Sydney remains an outside chance at making finals, and faces an easier run home than most. Danger games against Adelaide and GWS away from home could pose trouble, while Melbourne looms in Round 24. Still, Sydney could win four of its last five and sneak into finals.
Sydney's run home
Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: GWS at GIANTS Stadium
Round 22: Gold Coast at SCG
Round 23: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 24: Melbourne at SCG
Projected finish - 13th
Wins: Gold Coast
Possible wins: Essendon, GWS
Losses: Melbourne, Adelaide
MORE: AFL membership numbers 2023: Sydney joins eight clubs to break greatest member records
13. Adelaide Crows (eight wins, ten losses - 113.5 per cent)
Though two wins outside the top eight, Adelaide has the advantage of a healthy percentage. The Crows will need to be near perfect from here, and a showdown with cross-town rivals Port Adelaide is the place to start. Adelaide will also need to get through Brisbane at the Gabba, a feat no team has accomplished in 2023.
Adelaide's run home
Round 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 21: Gold Coast at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Brisbane at Gabba
Round 23: Sydney at Adelaide Oval
Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium
Projected finish - 11th
Wins: Gold Coast, Sydney, West Coast
Possible wins: Port Adelaide
Losses: Brisbane
14. Gold Coast (eight wins, ten losses - 92.3 per cent)
A maiden finals appearance is almost out of reach for Gold Coast, but there is some semblance of hope. It would take five wins from five, and fixtures against Brisbane and Carlton won't make that easy. The Suns have looked better under Steven King, but it could be all too late.
Gold Coast's run home
Round 20: Brisbane at Heritage Bank Stadium
Round 21: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Sydney at SCG
Round 23: Carlton at Heritage Bank Stadium
Round 24: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena
Projected finish - 14th
Wins: North Melbourne
Possible wins: Brisbane
Losses: Adelaide, Sydney, Carlton
AFL ladder prediction
Teams were awarded one point for a predicted win, 0.5 for a possible win, and zero for a projected loss. In case of a tie, the team with the highest current percentage is placed higher.
| Position | Club | Wins |
| 1 | Collingwood | 19.5 |
| 2 | Port Adelaide | 18 |
| 3 | Brisbane | 17.5 |
| 4 | Melbourne | 16 |
| 5 | Geelong | 13.5, 1 draw |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs | 13 |
| 7 | Carlton | 12.5, 1 draw |
| 8 | GWS | 12.5F |
| 9 | St Kilda | 12 |
| 10 | Richmond | 11.5, 1 draw |
| 11 | Adelaide | 11.5 |
| 12 | Essendon | 11.5 |
| 13 | Sydney | 10, 1 draw |
| 14 | Gold Coast | 9.5 |
