AFL grand final tips: Betting preview, odds and prediction for Sydney vs. Brisbane

Two teams who know the pain of grand final defeat meet in Saturday's decider at the MCG.

The young Swans were humbled by Geelong on this stage in 2022 while Brisbane fell just short against the Magpies last year.

Which club will exorcise their demons and which will be left to rue another missed opportunity at football's holy grail?

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Below are The Sporting News’ betting predictions and best bets for the AFL grand final (all odds courtesy of Sportsbet):

Sydney vs. Brisbane prediction, tip, best bet

• Head-to-head record: Sydney - 26 | Brisbane - 17
• Last 5: Brisbane - 4 | Sydney - 1
• Last meeting: Brisbane 11.13 (79) def. Sydney 11.11 (77)
• Odds: Sydney $1.77 | Brisbane $2.10

The minor premiers and the best team all year face off with the competition's form side in the season finale at the MCG.

Sydney finished on top of the ladder and, excusing a late-season blip, have looked the team most likely to play off for silverware.

For Brisbane, it was an inauspicious start to the season as they sat 2-5 after seven games before storming home with a 10-2 home-and-away record following their mid-season bye.

One of those wins included a hard-fought two-point victory over the Swans at the Gabba in round 19.

That game came during Sydney's only lean run for the year, a period which also saw them suffer a 112-point defeat to Port Adelaide.

Last week's preliminary final showed the Swans have significantly improved since then, knocking the Power out with a six-goal win at the SCG.

Sydney have also been bolstered by the return of some key personnel since that defeat to the Lions, with James Rowbottom and Justin McInerney now back in the team.

An injury to Oscar McInerney in Brisbane's win over Geelong on Saturday is a significant blow to their chances, with Darcy Fort to come in and ruck against Brodie Grundy in his first senior game since round eight and just his third for the year.

Grundy, whose own form has dropped slightly since the start of the season, will be hoping to get on top and get first use to the likes of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden.

Sydney's tall trio of Logan McDonald, Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean have been criticised for their inconsistent scoreboard impact at times but all three had their moments in the preliminary final and could repeat that effort if the midfield is given time and space to work.

Luke Parker was able to nullify the impact of Aliir Aliir in the second half of the preliminary final and may be deployed in a similar role if Harris Andrews or another Brisbane defender is shutting down the Swans' offence.

Much of Brisbane's strength comes in their depth and while Sydney have used taggers with success this season, there's only so many players you can go to.

Expect James Jordon to run with Dayne Zorko and Rowbottom to keep an eye on Lachie Neale at stoppages but the likes of Hugh McCluggage, Zac Bailey, Callum Ah Chee and Will Ashcroft are good enough to make their opponents pay if given an inch.

In the forward line, Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron shape as the key weapons for the Lions, with Tom McCartin and Harry Cunningham the obvious matchups.

Cam Rayner played a pivotal role against Sydney earlier this year, as well as in last week's preliminary final, and looms as a potential wildcard for Chris Fagan's side. 

Both sides look to move the ball fast and prey on turnovers, a style of game which should suit the wide-open MCG and fine weather conditions which are expected, potentially paving the way for a high-scoring affair.

If the game becomes an arm wrestle, you'd have to favour the Lions, who have the runs on the board in coming from behind to beat GWS and Geelong in recent weeks.

Despite their regular season success, Sydney have rarely put a four-quarter effort together, instead blowing teams away in short spurts.

For all the marbles, we expect the Swans to learn from their 2022 mistakes and come out firing from the opening bounce, with their firepower in midfield and at half forward proving the difference.

Prediction: Sydney by 17

Best bet: Sydney 1-39 + Total Game Points Over 172.5 = $4.20