AFL Finals Week 2 Betting Predictions: Melbourne, Collingwood prevail in thrillers

Aidan Cellini

AFL Finals Week 2 Betting Predictions: Melbourne, Collingwood prevail in thrillers image

After an enthralling opening weekend of the AFL finals, every game has plenty to play for as all clubs vie for premiership glory.

Sydney and Geelong were the first to join the penultimate weekend while they await their opponents as they enjoy a week off.

After the Swans downed reigning premiers Melbourne, the Demons will host Brisbane in a do-or-die clash on Friday night at the MCG.

The Lions come off an impressive last-minute win against Richmond, improving their finals winning percentage ever so slightly from the past four seasons.

Collingwood were valiant in their efforts but ultimately fell short of the minor premiers and will now have to back it up again against Fremantle.

The Dockers somehow prevailed after being down by 41-points in the second term against the Western Bulldogs and keep their premiership hopes alive.

Here at The Sporting News, we've put together our betting predictions for week two of the finals:

Odds courtesy of TAB as at 7/9/22.

 

Melbourne vs Brisbane

 

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If the first week of the finals is anything to go by, then this game should be just as exciting.

Melbourne will be keen to bounce back after being beaten by a superior Sydney outfit.

It is common knowledge that Brisbane have an MCG hoodoo as well as a Demons one, with the club winning only two of their past 10 match ups.

The Lions have also lost their last 11 matches in a row at the home of football, including a hiding from Melbourne in round 15 and a narrow loss to Richmond in round 20, being their only two games at the ground in 2022.

In their last three meetings, Simon Goodwin's men have flexed their muscles, winning by an average of 52 points.

A key area in those three games was the fact that Melbourne dominated contested possession, resulting in Christian Petracca (avg. 12 contested), Jack Viney (12), Clayton Oliver (20) and Max Gawn (11) getting well on top of their opponents.

This allowed Bayley Fritsch to kick 11 goals throughout that span, Kysaiah Pickett (8), Ben Brown (5) and Petracca (4).

If Melbourne are to win this match and face the Cats in a prelim final, they need their midfielders to get on top.

On the other side of the coin, Brisbane need to make this a shootout, hitting the scoreboard frequently.

It is no shock to know that the Lions defence is a point of vulnerability, ranking 10th in the home-and-away season for Points Against (1799).

However, when Brisbane score over 80 points, they are 14 wins from 18 matches while those four losses combine for a aggregate total of 36 points (ave. of nine).

Chris Fagan's men are the second ranked team for Points For (2147) and will hope to exploit that fact.

What it will come down to is a battle of the best defensive side against the strongest offensive team.

1. Brisbane +18.5 Line - $1.90

2. Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals - $1.25

3. Jack Viney 25+ disposals - $1.95

Collingwood vs Fremantle

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Despite it being a final, this matchup has plenty of intrigue, with the sides last facing off in round 10.

Collingwood ran riot against the home side, sparking an 11-game win streak that would storm them back into the top four and premiership contention.

Fremantle suffered back-to-back losses at the time and looked to struggle against the premier teams in the competition.

However, entering this do-or-die clash is an in-form Dockers outfit, who have put four wins on the trot, while the Pies have lost two of their past three.

Justin Longmuir has created a formidable defensive structure which has prevented many sides from scoring heavily.

Fremantle are second in Points Against (1486) only behind Melbourne, limiting opposition to an average of 68 points.

On the 10 occasions, the Dockers conceded less than their average, they won eight games and drew another, highlighting the defensive significance.

They are also seven victories from 10 matches away from Optus Stadium and a draw.

Their opponents, Collingwood however, play an erratic game brand which is reflected by the close wins in tight games and their percentage (104.3).

The Pies were unlucky to progress to a home preliminary final against the Cats but have another opportunity to put themselves in the final four.

McRae's men never die wondering and will give themselves every chance to win this, with the side putting together a near complete performance last week.

Taylor Adams' absence is a major issue for Collingwood, who now lack their contested bull in the midfield, with Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong licking their lips.

Onus should come on Jack Crisp, who has put together another strong season, backing up his 2021 Copeland Trophy year.

This game will come down to structure versus chaos and who's prepared to take the game on when it needs to be won.

1. Collingwood to win - $1.52

2. Michael Walters 2+ goals - $1.95

3. Jack Crisp 25+ disposals - $2.60

Aidan Cellini

Aidan Cellini Photo

Aidan has surrounded himself with all types of sport, but resonates most with AFL and basketball as he still plays both competitively. He loves being active and enjoys sharing sporting moments with friends and family.

In his spare time, Aidan likes to read biographies as well as keep active and healthy. He's also a big fan of Matthew McConaughey and Marvel movies.