AFL expected score is becoming an important statistic to help tell the story of a match in 2024.
Coaches such as Simon Goodwin and Ross Lyon have mentioned the statistic in press conferences and interviews during the current season.
But what is expected score and what are the results in 2024?
What is AFL expected score?
The statistic is the AFL's equivalent of soccer's 'xG' measurement.
It estimates if a score is more likely to be a goal or behind based on historical observations.
Factors that influence AFL expected score include:
- Shot location
- Type of shot
- The kicker
- Preferred foot
- Venue
- Weather conditions
At the end of the match, the total expected score shows the result based on the historical observations of similar shots on goal.
It can show if a team won because they took their scoring attempts well, or a team lost because they squandered opportunities.
AFL 2024 season expected score results
Source: @AFLxScore
Opening Round
| Actual score | Expected score | Actual winner | Expected winner |
| Sydney 84 Melbourne 63 | Sydney 84.9 Melbourne 63.5 | Sydney by 21 pts | Sydney by 21.4 pts |
| Brisbane 82 Carlton 84 | Brisbane 84.2 Carlton 66.1 | Carlton by 2 pts | Brisbane by 18.1 pts |
| Gold Coast 94 Richmond 59 | Gold Coast 104.4 Richmond 50.4 | Gold Coast by 35 pts | Gold Coast by 54 pts |
| GWS 113 Collingwood 80 | GWS 73.1 Collingwood 90.8 | GWS by 33 pts | Collingwood by 17.7 pts |
Round 1
| Actual score | Expected score | Actual winner | Expected winner |
| Carlton 86 Richmond 79 | Carlton 95.6 Richmond 81.3 | Carlton by 7 pts | Carlton by 14.3 pts |
| Collingwood 68 Sydney 101 | Collingwood 63.2 Sydney 100 | Sydney by 33 pts | Sydney by 36.8 pts |
| Essendon 107 Hawthorn 82 | Essendon 79.7 Hawthorn 89.6 | Essendon by 25 pts | Hawthorn by 9.9 pts |
| GWS 120 North Melbourne 82 | GWS 136.5 North Melbourne 66.8 | GWS by 42 pts | GWS by 69.7 pts |
| Gold Coast 59 Adelaide 53 | Gold Coast 63.3 Adelaide 50.3 | Gold Coast by 6 pts | Gold Coast by 13 pts |
| Geelong 74 St Kilda 68 | Geelong 97.6 St Kilda 89.4 | Geelong by 6 pts | Geelong by 8.2 pts |
| Melbourne 107 Western Bulldogs 63 | Melbourne 87.7 Western Bulldogs 70.1 | Melbourne by 44 pts | Melbourne by 17.6 pts |
| Port Adelaide 120 West Coast 69 | Port Adelaide 126.4 West Coast 73.5 | Port Adelaide by 51 pts | Port Adelaide by 52.9 pts |
| Fremantle 93 Brisbane 69 | Fremantle 85.5 Brisbane 70.9 | Fremantle by 24 pts | Fremantle by 14.6 pts |
Round 2
| Actual score | Expected score | Actual winner | Expected winner |
| St Kilda 93 Collingwood 76 | St Kilda 75.3 Collingwood 67.6 | St Kilda by 17 pts | St Kilda by 7.7 pts |
| Adelaide 74 Geelong 91 | Adelaide 84.9 Geelong 77.3 | Geelong by 17 pts | Adelaide by 7.6 pts |
| North Melbourne 76 Fremantle 100 | North Melbourne 77 Fremantle 96.8 | Fremantle by 24 pts | Fremantle by 19.8 pts |
| Hawthorn 37 Melbourne 92 | Hawthorn 48.2 Melbourne 77.3 | Melbourne by 55 pts | Melbourne by 29.1 pts |
| Sydney 130 Essendon 99 | Sydney 116.6 Essendon 92.9 | Sydney by 31 pts | Sydney by 23.7 pts |
| Western Bulldogs 115 Gold Coast 66 | Western Bulldogs 105.2 Gold Coast 59.4 | Bulldogs by 39 pts | Bulldogs by 45.8 pts |
| Richmond 91 Port Adelaide 122 | Richmond 82.3 Port Adelaide 128.3 | Port Adelaide by 31 pts | Port Adelaide by 46 pts |
| West Coast 41 GWS 106 | West Coast 47.9 GWS 96.9 | GWS by 65 pts | GWS by 49 pts |
Round 3
| Actual score | Expected score | Actual winner | Expected winner |
| Brisbane 70 Collingwood 91 | Brisbane 65.4 Collingwood 73.4 | Collingwood by 21 pts | Collingwood by 8 pts |
| North Melbourne 77 Carlton 133 | North Melbourne 72.3 Carlton 123.6 | Carlton by 56 pts | Carlton 51.3 pts |
| Fremantle 66 Adelaide 32 | Fremantle 79.5 Adelaide 46.8 | Fremantle by 34 pts | Fremantle by 32.7 pts |
| Essendon 69 St Kilda 65 | Essendon 80.3 St Kilda 86.4 | Essendon by 4 pts | St Kilda by 6.1 pts |
| Port Adelaide 88 Melbourne 96 | Port Adelaide 99.1 Melbourne 65.5 | Melbourne by 8 pts | Port Adelaide by 33.6 pts |
| Western Bulldogs 103 West Coast 29 | Western Bulldogs 91.8 West Coast 56.4 | Bulldogs by 74 pts | Bulldogs by 45.4 pts |
| Richmond 76 Sydney 74 | Richmond 77.6 Sydney 76.7 | Richmond by 2 pts | Richmond by 0.9 pts |
| Hawthorn 68 Geelong 106 | Hawthorn 74.8 Geelong 78.7 | Geelong by 38 pts | Geelong by 3.9 pts |
Round 4
| Actual score | Expected score | Actual winner | Expected winner |
| Adelaide 62 Melbourne 76 | Adelaide 80.8 Melbourne 85.6 | Melbourne by 14 pts | Melbourne by 4.8 pts |
| Brisbane 109 North Melbourne 42 | Brisbane 135.7 North Melbourne 42.1 | Brisbane by 67 pts | Brisbane by 93.6 pts |
| Port Adelaide 110 Essendon 41 | Port Adelaide 89.8 Essendon 40.2 | Port Adelaide by 69 pts | Port Adelaide by 49.6 pts |
| West Coast 77 Sydney 103 | West Coast 90.8 Sydney 102.8 | Sydney by 26 pts | Sydney by 12 pts |
| Fremantle 62 Carlton 72 | Fremantle 74.6 Carlton 80.9 | Carlton by 10 pts | Carlton by 6.3 pts |
| Western Bulldogs 91 Geelong 93 | Western Bulldogs 93.2 Geelong 82.8 | Geelong by 2 pts | Bulldogs by 8.4 pts |
| Gold Coast 89 GWS 115 | Gold Coast 87.4 GWS 102.6 | GWS by 26 pts | GWS by 15.2 pts |
| Richmond 59 St Kilda 63 | Richmond 53.2 St Kilda 75.4 | St Kilda by 4 pts | St Kilda by 18.2 pts |
| Collingwood 76 Hawthorn 71 | Collingwood 74.3 Hawthorn 66.4 | Collingwood by 5 pts | Collingwood by 7.9 pts |