AFL finals are finally here and all four games are expected to be tight matches.
In each final, the underdog was victorious in the previous contest during the home-and-away season.
The Sporting News gives you the best betting tips for the first week of finals.
Odds courtesy of Dabble.
Last week, we got seven out of nine bets in a return to form on the eve of finals.
MORE: AFL Injury List 2023
Collingwood vs Melbourne best bet - First Qualifying Final
Both Collingwood and Melbourne possess strong defensive units and we all know finals is a defensive game.
Free-flowing, score-heavy contests are unlikely as coaches plot to shut their opposition down.
Of the Demons' last eight games against teams in the finals, seven have seen the total match score underneath 160.5 points.
There is also an 80 per cent chance of rain during the game, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
These factors lead us to believe the total match score will be unders.
Total Match Score Under 160.5 points - $1.98
- Kieran Francis
Carlton vs Sydney best bet - First Elimination Final
Carlton is set to play its first final since 2013, and will come up against an experienced Sydney outfit.
While the Swans will be missing Lance Franklin after his retirement, they’ll still have Tom Papley, who is known to put on a show come finals.
Goals could be hard to come by for Sydney, but Papley has slotted two or more goals in two of his last three finals and kicked a major in all but one game this season.
He’ll be someone the Swans look for in attack.
Tom Papley 2+ goals - $1.85
- Bryn Wakefield
St Kilda vs GWS best bet - Second Elimination Final
It is expected to be a tight tussle at the MCG on Saturday afternoon between the Saints and Giants.
St Kilda ruckman Rowan Marshall has hit the scoreboard consistently recently, kicking goals in six of his past seven games.
Marshall has been using his fitness base to push forward to be a regular target.
The Saint is paying $2.20 to be an anytime goalscorer, which is value.
Rowan Marshall anytime goalscorer - $2.20
- Kieran Francis
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide - Second Qualifying Final
Brisbane comes into its qualifying final against Port Adelaide as the favourite, and rightly so, having won all eleven of its games at the Gabba this season.
Recent results, however, show that it might not be a straightforward win for the Lions, who have escaped by some fine margins in recent home appearances.
Brisbane’s last three wins at the venue have come under two goals difference, and while they should get the result over the Power, it's expected to be another close one.
Brisbane Margin 1-39 points - $2.08
- Bryn Wakefield
