Geelong's shock start to the 2023 season has cause for concern, with statisticians and historians bringing unique records to the foreground.
Following a premiership victory in 2022, there are two mind-boggling stats that have Cats fans scratching their head.
As we speak, their club sits 0-3 after being run over by Gold Coast by 19 points on Sunday, following losses to Collingwood and Carlton in the opening rounds.
Sitting firmly in 18th place on the AFL ladder, Geelong remains as the only team without a win, producing a 64-year first - for only the second time in history, the Cats join Collingwood as reigning premiers who are the last winless team the following season.
V/@AFL seasons where the last team without a win was the reigning premiers
— Swamp (@sirswampthing) April 2, 2023
1959 - coll
2023 - GEEL
Geelong's unfortunate start also produced another interesting anomaly as their 0-3 record following a premiership is the fourth occurrence in the archives.
V/@AFL reigning premiers to start a season 0-3
— Swamp (@sirswampthing) April 2, 2023
1942 - melb
1959 - coll
1976 - nth
2023 - GEEL
#AFLSunsCats https://t.co/F5HvMF8HPd
(It's also the first time Geelong has last three straight games since 2017)
Albeit an outlier, on those occasions, the Pies and Kangaroos made finals, with the latter losing in the decider against Hawthorn.
But this isn't something Geelong supporters should be holding their hopes on.
Since the Cats claimed their 10th flag last September, the question was always going to be whether or not they can do it again.
Fielding the oldest side in VFL/AFL history, age was bound to catch up with Geelong, despite the immense talent on their list.
At an average age of 28y 206d the GEEL 2022 #AFLGF lineup is the oldest side for any V/@AFL game
— Swamp (@sirswampthing) September 24, 2022
@GeelongCats
As the clock struck on year 2022, a new season dawned and the debate around their veterans would spring back into action again, which has been further fuelled by the poor start.
Although bringing in youngsters Jack Bowes (Gold Coast), Ollie Henry (Collingwood) and Tanner Bruhn (GWS) and losing legend Joel Selwood (retirement), Geelong still sits as the oldest club in the competition.
In 2023, a total of 13 players over 30, including some of their stars such as Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins, Patrick Dangerfield and Mark Blicavs, who are heavily relied upon.
So, what has gone wrong since? Have the Cats become complacent? Have they lost the hunger? Or, has age finally caught up to them?
A list of key statistics indicate that Geelong are well off their usual standards.
Admittedly, they have been hindered by injuries to key players including Tom Stewart, Mitch Duncan and Jack Henry but the way they are playing has alarm bells ringing.
Let's compare 2022 to the first three rounds of this season.
Geelong statistics ranked (avg. per game)
| 2022 | 2023 (R1-3) | Change (pos.) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disposals | 6th (374.3) | 17th (330) | -11 |
| Disposal Efficiency | 9th (73.1 per cent) | 18th (70.5 per cent) | -9 |
| Clangers | 9th (59.7) | 1st (67) | +8 |
| Uncontested Possession | 6th (231.6) | 16th (195.3) | -10 |
| Contested Possession | 10th (136.4) | 17th (123.7) | -7 |
| Clearances | 8th (37.6) | 18th (31) | -10 |
| Marks | 5th (97.6) | 15th (84) | -10 |
| Intercepts | 6th (71.4) | 9th (68.7) | -3 |
| Turnovers | 18th (64.5) | 9th (69) | +9 |
| Goal Assists | 1st (10.7) | 9th (8.3) | -8 |
| Inside 50s | 1st (57.9) | 13th (51) | -12 |
| Tackles I50 | 14th (9.7) | 17th (6.7) | -3 |
| One Percenters | 14th (47) | 18th (36.7) | -3 |
So what's the reason for these discrepancies?
Cats' claws trimmed
Jack Henry, Mitch Duncan and Jake Kolodjashnij have yet to play a game in 2023.
Tom Stewart hurt his knee in round one and miraculously returned for the Gold Coast game.
Tom Hawkins came into the season under-done while Jeremy Cameron admitted on the Tommy Talks podcast that he also didn't have the perfect pre-season, despite his impressive early season form.
“The knee blew up, limping down the road 300 metres in, skin folds were over 120. All you think about is beer fumes and just food, that many Maccas burgers and hash browns, egg and bacons,” Cameron said.
“It’s a proper month of just (going for it), then it comes a time and it’s like overnight, the fingers just click and you’re like: ‘We have to do it again here’. It’s just a horrible feeling when that comes.
“I still haven’t looked the dietitian in the eye.”
Sam de Koning continues to be beaten pillar to post and looks in desperate need of a rest as Rhys Stanley was given the week off to recuperate.
MORE: Geelong missing five key players - Full AFL Injury List
Selwood-sized hole
Joel Selwood's retirement has left a bigger hole than most anticipated.
Dangerfield willingly stepped into the role of captain and his first three games have been subpar, whether it be due to the newfound pressure or injury concern is yet to be determined.
So far in 2023, perhaps Jeremy Cameron excluded, Geelong have been found wanting when the game has been in the balance.
Throughout all losses to Collingwood, Carlton and Gold Coast, the Cats were in with a chance to claim victory but failed when it mattered most.
At those times, it would usually be Selwood who would kick-start his side by laying a massive tackle, putting on a block or winning a crucial clearance to get the ball rolling.
We have yet to see that from anyone in Geelong's 23 so far.
Cats out of the bag
As clubs who win the premiership go from the hunters to the hunted, oppositions prepare themselves to take down the massive scalp of the reigning premiers.
With elaborate planning and dissecting of Geelong's game plan, it is possible that some clubs have worked them out.
Collingwood were able to be within reaching distance toward the end of the game and had faith that their youth would be able to outrun the Cats' veterans, reflected by an eight-goal avalanche to the black-and-white.
Biggest streak of goals GEEL gave up in 2022
— Swamp (@sirswampthing) March 17, 2023
7 in a row (COLL in R03)
Biggest streak of goals GEEL have given up in 2023
8 in a row (COLL in R01)
@CollingwoodFC #AFLPiesCats
Carlton were able to take Geelong's running game away from them, marking the ball 110 times, compared to 64.
Patrick Cripps also led the way in the midfield battle, with the Blues dominating disposals (382-328) and contested possession (136-120) despite losing the clearances (32-35).
Whereas the Suns smashed the clearances (39-23) and contested possession (145-121) components of the game, which allowed Stuart Dew's men to gain territory and apply pressure on Geelong's defence.
Gold Coast will be pleased with 14 tackles inside their forward 50, which was coupled with 49 one-percenters, indicating plenty of effort.
Scott assured fans that this winless start is no reason to panic but there is plenty to work on.
"Our execution is off, it doesn't look like the way we play when at our best," Scott said post-game against the Suns.
"We've always known, even when we we're going well, if your level slips, you fall back and you're at risk of losing every game you play.
"There's some things that are really obvious to us, we went in eyes wide open with a few of our guys that will get better as the year goes on.
"And some other parts of our game and personnel that are a little bit off and that is harder to explain."
Geelong are hopeful that Duncan and Kolodjashnij will return from injury against Hawthorn to help steady the ship, while Stanley should bolster the line up.
