AFL Round 1 Betting Predictions: Curnow lights up MCG; Adelaide, Hawthorn start strong

Aidan Cellini

AFL Round 1 Betting Predictions: Curnow lights up MCG; Adelaide, Hawthorn start strong image

The 2023 AFL season is here and it begins with the traditional Thursday night clash between Carlton and Richmond at the MCG.

Following the mouth-watering opening match, the 2022 premiers Geelong take on the much-loved Collingwood line-up, who will be keen to go one step further than last year's preliminary final.

A 2021 Grand Final rematch also takes place over the weekend between Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs while Port Adelaide plays host to Brisbane on Saturday.

North Melbourne faces West Coast, Sydney travel north to the Gold Coast as Adam Kingsley gets his new regime at GWS underway against Adelaide on Sunday.

Arch-rvials Hawthorn and Essendon do battle.

The opening round is completed with Ross Lyon coaching his new/old club - St Kilda - against his former side, Fremantle at Marvel Stadium.

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Here at The Sporting News, we've put together our betting predictions for round 1:

Odds courtesy of Bluebet.

Richmond vs Carlton

One of the more anticipated match ups between the two clubs in recent history, despite Richmond's long reign over Carlton.

Since 2014, the Blues have won one clash (round one 2022) in that time but will go into Thursday night with complete confidence that can change.

During that time, there has been an average of 27 goals per match combined in the season openers (nine games).

Given new game styles developed over the pre-season and new rules, the match is relatively free flowing as players adjust back into the home-and-away season.

Each time throughout those nine clashes between the Tigers and Blues - in season openers - there's been at least one player slot three or more goals on the night.

And with that said, 2023's version of round one is set to do the same.

With plenty of star power on either end, it'll be Carlton's Charlie Curnow to kick three or more majors.

Charlie Curnow 3+ goals - $1.70

Geelong vs Collingwood

The past three clashes between Geelong and Collingwood has had an average win margin of just under 10 points, including the exhilarating Qualifying Final in 2022.

After their premiership win, the Cats have added a litter of young talent, comprising of Gold Coast's Jack Bowes, GWS' Tanner Bruhn and the Pies' Oliver Henry.

Collingwood also added some new names to their list, with Tom Mitchell, Bobby Hill, Billy Frampton and Dan McStay likely to take their place on Friday night.

So, with both clubs believing they're in premiership contention, expect this battle to be similar to those in recent history.

The Cats do start as favourites but Craig McRae's men relish when they're seen as underdogs and have the belief to topple the 2022 premiers.

Close game in-coming, again.

Collingwood line +11.5 - $1.90

North Melbourne vs West Coast

Not much is expected from North Melbourne and West Coast in 2023, with both sides occupying the bottom two positions on the ladder last year.

The Kangaroos are under a new regime - with Alastair Clarkson taking the reins over the summer - and their fans are hopeful for some consistent efforts.

The Eagles are also in a transition phase and seem keen to unveil some of their young talents going forward.

Harry Sheezel has been confirmed to debut in round one against West Coast and the AFL world is exciting by the amount of tricks he has in his bag.

Showcasing through his draft year and over the pre-season, Sheezel's goal sense is super impressive and creates opportunities where there are none.

Harry Sheezel 2+ goals - $2.40

Harry Sheezel.jpg
Getty Images

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane

Brisbane has been touted as a genuine premiership contender and the additions of Jack Gunston, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft to the best 23 adds more value to that fact.

Their opponents in round one, Port Adelaide, are attempting to return to finals after a disappointing 2022 season and will hope their young talent can rise to the challenge.

However, if the pre-season was anything to go by, the Lions will be the one team that is hard to stop, led by their star-studded midfield and elite attack.

Dunkley's inclusion to this side adds a lot of defensive capabilities through the middle of the ground and will free up players like Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage to become more offensive.

Neale - the 2020 Brownlow Medalist - will have his sights set on a big year in 2023 and that will start on Saturday against the Power.

Lachie Neale 30+ disposals - $2.15

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

The 2021 Grand Final rematch is set to explode at the MCG on Saturday night, with the stadium hosting its 3000th VFL/AFL match.

Both clubs were busy in the off-season with Melbourne acquiring Western Bulldogs pair Lachie Hunter and Josh Schache as well as Brodie Grundy.

The Dogs lured Rory Lobb and Liam Jones to the club, bolstering their tall stocks.

The midfield groups for either side have been super impressive across the offseason, led by Marcus Bontempelli and Clayton Oliver respectively.

Anticipating a tight game, it could be decided by which core stands up in the heat of battle.

Bontempelli is one of the favourites for the Brownlow and he'll get his 2023 campaign off to a flyer.

Marcus Bontempelli 2+ goals - $3.00

Gold Coast vs Sydney

An intriguing clash between Gold Coast and Sydney at Metricon Stadium takes place in round one.

The Swans are looking to bounce back from the humiliating 81-point loss in the 2022 Grand Final while the Suns are hopeful of making finals for the first time in their history.

Gold Coast have won four of the past six matches and always seem to trouble Sydney with their contested ball winning and defensive outputs.

Front-and-centre of that midfield battle is Suns co-captain Touk Miller, who is touted to have a massive 2023 season and contend for the Brownlow.

Miller's consistency over the past two seasons has been nothing short of remarkable and rivals some of the best players in the competition.

If Gold Coast were to get their campaign off to a flyer at home, Miller is the man.

Touk Miller 30+ disposals - $2.15

Touk Miller Gold Coast
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GWS vs Adelaide

Alike the Suns-Swans match-up, GWS and Adelaide are two clubs tipped to be outside the eight in 2023 but aren't completely written off.

The Crows are well and truly on the way up under Matthew Nicks and are expected to rise up the ladder this year while the Giants are under new instruction and could surprise a few.

Izak Rankine's inclusion to the Adelaide side adds another dynamic while Darcy Fogarty is set for a massive year.

If the Crows are serious on becoming a genuine contender in the next couple years, then games like these are must-wins.

A victory away from home against a GWS outfit who are still working out the kinks is the perfect way to begin your season.

Adelaide to win - $2.25

Hawthorn vs Essendon

Two arch-rivals filled with a history of hate and disgust for one another.

Although the modern-day feud doesn't stack up to events gone in the past, expect this traditional Sunday afternoon clash to have everything.

Hawthorn have openly admitted to beginning anew, removing a lot of experience and trusting their young talent to take them into the future.

Essendon - who's had tremendous change at board level including a new coach - are hard to get a read on in 2023.

The Bombers made the finals in 2021 but struggled last year despite plenty of stars in their line-up.

A defensive-minded coach in Brad Scott should help straighten the club up but a lack of commitment from some of their stars - Jake Stringer - still reeks of an old culture unwilling to die.

This may give an excited and vibrant Hawks outfit a sniff and who knows, perhaps the premiership points in round one.

Hawthorn to win - $2.30

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Getty Images

St Kilda vs Fremantle

The remake of the Ross Lyon cup.

Lyon's move back to St Kilda after three seasons away from the game adds another piece of kindling to the burning fire.

Both clubs have something to prove, with Fremantle needing to knock off teams like the Saints to establish their genuine premiership credentials.

In 2022 the Dockers were fantastic defensively and their midfield was as strong as most but lacked the ability to kick a winning score.

The departure of Rory Lobb doesn't help but the club is hopeful that the re-inclusion of Nat Fyfe as a key forward and introduction of Luke Jackson should help fill the void.

It'll be interesting how the Fyfe experiment works but if Fremantle were to push for top four and their first flag in history, it simply must.

Despite the Saints' defensive prowess last year (7th for points against), the two-time Brownlow Medalist is near impossible to go with and round one won't be different.

Nat Fyfe 3+ goals - $3.50

Aidan Cellini

Aidan Cellini Photo

Aidan has surrounded himself with all types of sport, but resonates most with AFL and basketball as he still plays both competitively. He loves being active and enjoys sharing sporting moments with friends and family.

In his spare time, Aidan likes to read biographies as well as keep active and healthy. He's also a big fan of Matthew McConaughey and Marvel movies.