Carlton's season opening match against Richmond delivered many entertaining aspects but failed to yield the most important part: four premiership points.
In a tight contest from start to finish, the Blues looked to be holding the Tigers at bay and even more so when there was only minutes on the clock.
However, alike many matches in 2022, Michael Voss' men were unable to execute on the biggest stage, allowing Tom Lynch to come in clutch with 17 seconds to go.
Lynch took a contested mark amongst three Carlton defenders including Lewis Young and Jacob Weitering, and nailed the goal 30 metres out directly in front to level the scores.
MORE: Is it time for the AFL to bring in extra-time during the home-and-away seasons?
Time expired before either club could hit the scoreboard again but for a brief moment, Blake Acres found himself in a paddock of space near the forward 50 and dropped a simple chest mark, before he and Lochie O'Brien were mauled by Tigers defenders.
This feeling amongst navy blue fans of 'what could have been?' is eerily familiar and has been a common theme over many years, dating back to 2014, the season after their last finals appearance.
Since the last time Carlton featured in September, the club has lost 27 games under 12 points and drawn twice.
That is an average of three per season, which could be the difference between finals and a holiday during the European summer.
The inability the club has had converting opportunities is profound and is a stark contrast of arch-rivals Collingwood and their 2022 run, winning 11 games by under two goals, resulting in a top four finish.
Some say it's luck. Others believe it's teachable. And there's a case for it to be a skill.
Are Carlton seriously unlucky or is there a deep-seated problem with their competence to win high-pressure, tight games?
The Blues squandered every opportunity they had in the last month of 2022, losing the last four games of the season and missing out on finals, despite being in the eight for the entirety of the year.
CARL last 3 @AFL games
— Swamp (@sirswampthing) March 16, 2023
2022 R22 v MELB, had lead with under a minute to go
2022 R23 v COLL, had lead with under 2 minutes to go
2023 R01 v RICH, had lead with under a minute to go
#AFLTigersBlues
Carlton boasts arguably one of the more talented lists in the competition, headed by Brownlow Medalist and captain Patrick Cripps as well as Coleman Medal winners Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.
Weitering is an All-Australian while Sam Walsh - who is currently injured - is poised to become a star of the league.
Not to mention Adam Cerra, Adam Saad, George Hewett, Tom de Koning, Sam Docherty and Mitch McGovern.
Former Carlton superstar Eddie Betts declared that 2023 was their year, saying "it's go-time".
“It’s their time. It’s their time now to play finals – and that starts (Thursday) night,” Betts told Fox Footy’s AFL 360.
“This year is Carlton’s year."
However, a bleaker look on Carlton's 2023 prospects was taken by eight-time All-Australian Nathan Buckley, who thinks they are "beatable".
“Their inside 50 stuff still needs a lot of work, they rely on stoppage and aerial talent and it’s a bit run and gun out of the back,” Buckley said.
“Everyone assumes because they had a good year last year that they’re going to make the eight this year. I don’t know whether they can match their season last year with 12 wins.
“If they start poorly, all of that expectation, all of that pressure internally will become an issue but externally people will start seeing weaknesses.”
The Blues are currently the eighth oldest team (24.6 years) but rank 13th for experience (62.1 games), hinting at a potential lack of composure compared to the elite sides.
This statistic reared its ugly head once last night, when O'Brien was streaming down the wing with minutes to go and failed to hit up McKay a lot earlier than he did.
SEN media personality David King said the winger "had no idea" during the final stages of the match, which ultimately could've been a determining factor in the end result.
“It’s one thing to teach, it’s another thing to learn. Lochie O’Brien had no idea what he was doing late in the game. No idea. ‘Dumb players get you sacked’ is a Robert Walls-ism. He would’ve been furious this morning," King said.
“I said to you, this year every team is training the two-minute drill at the end of games because we know how tight the competition is.
“It’s the gap between making finals and finishing top four. We’re 1 from 1."
O'Brien wasn't the only one who made a blunder last night, as Acres and McGovern made costly mistakes in the dying stages of the match.
For the moment, Carlton fans are feeling bittersweet, given the fact their team was in the hunt for premiership points and left with two.
However, in order to buck the decade-long trend of losing tight games and missing finals, something has got to give.
We all know it's only round one of 2023, but has the theme of cracking under pressure been around for much longer?
Carlton is one to keep a close eye on this year.
